世界银行-巴布亚新几内亚经济更新，2023年3月：释放性别平等的经济效益（英）-2023.3-70页_12mb

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Papua New Guinea Economic Update - Unlocking the Economic Benefits of Gender Equality (March 2023)

1. Overview

• Economic Context: PNG reported substantial economic growth in 2022 (4.5%), driven by high global commodity prices and a recovery post-COVID-19. Growth was particularly strong in the non-resource sector.
  • Outlook: Growth is projected to slow in 2023 due to lower global demand, planned maintenance in extractive industries, and delays in project reopenings like the Porgera gold mine. The baseline projection anticipates medium-term growth settling around 3%.
• Fiscal Policy: The government pursued fiscal consolidation, narrowing the fiscal deficit from 6.8% of GDP in 2021 to 5.4% in 2022. However, improved outcomes primarily stemmed from skyrocketing resource revenues, increasing PNG's external debt repayment (downscaled) but maintaining high public debt (47.9% of GDP in 2022). Sustainability hinges on further consolidation.
• Monetary Policy: Inflation remained elevated (6.3% year-on-average) in 2022, prompting the Central Bank to raise interest rates by 50 basis points.
• Special Focus: Gender Equality
  • The Case: Improving gender equality can enhance productivity, boost long-term living standards, and promote sustainable growth. Bridging the gender employment gap could raise GDP per capita by up to 20.8% by improving access to better jobs. Combating Gender-Based Violence (GBV) has significant social and economic benefits, potentially saving an annual 0.5% of GDP in productivity due to reduced absenteeism.
  • Key Challenges: PNG faces severe gender inequality across multiple dimensions:
    • Labor Force Participation & Employment: Only ~31% of the working-age population is economically active, with females significantly lagging (45% of employed women vs. ~50% men). Female employment is often precarious/informal, with limited access to high-productivity jobs.
    • Education & Skills: Parity in primary/elementary schooling but a widening gap to secondary and tertiary education. Skills mismatch persists, limiting employment prospects.
    • Gender-Based Violence (GBV): Endemic levels of GBV (62.9% of women experiencing intimate partner violence), impacting health, productivity, and safety.
    • Legal & Institutional Barriers: Discriminatory laws (Employment Act, Mine Safety Act) restrict women's economic opportunities. Enforcement of anti-discrimination and GBV laws is weak. Land access and control remain challenging for women.

2. Key Recommendations to Unlock Economic Potential (Short-Term)

• Legal Reform: Revise the 1978 Employment Act to remove discriminatory clauses, mandate paid maternity leave (14 weeks), prohibit sexual harassment, and address historical gender norms in customary law.
• GBV Response & Prevention: Strengthen the implementation of laws like the 2013 Family Protection Act, increase funding for support services (like FSCs), and scale up community-based initiatives.
• Social Protection & Gender Planning: Support early childhood development, promote male involvement in parenting, and fully implement the National Strategy to Prevent and Respond to Gender-Based Violence (GBV).
• Education & Skills: Improve school infrastructure, enhance the quality of preschool and TVET to boost female retention and opportunities.
• Entrepreneurship Support: Promote female access to finance and information in a context-sensitive way, leveraging associations and cooperatives.

3. Data Summary (PNG) / Key Metrics

• Economic Growth (Annual %):
  • 2018 - 2022: -0.3%, 4.5%, -3.2%, 0.1%, 4.5% (pre-COVID level surpassed)
  • Non-resource (2017-2021): Decline, then rebound (avg. ~4%+ incl. agriculture)
  • Extractive Sector (2017-2021): Decline, then strong rebound due to higher prices & specific project restarts.
• Fiscal Balance (Annual % of GDP):
  • Primary Balance (2018-2020): -2.6% / -5.0% / -8.9%
  • Overall Fiscal Deficit (2018-2021): -2.6% / -5.0% / -6.8% / -5.4% (2022 Projected)
  • Public Debt (2018-2020): 36.7% / 40.2% / 48.8%
• Main Indicators (Rate / Index Average) - 2022Q1-2022Q3 (MHIP/NSO):
  • GDP Growth Rate (Period): 4.6%
  • Consumer Price Index (Period): 3.9% (Monthly avg dropped vs previous quarter)
  • Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER): 10.37% Upward Trend
  • Policy Interest Rate (Central Bank): 3.7% (Rise from 3.0%)
• Gender Employment Gap Index (GEGI): 20.81% points lower for women compared to men, higher than most peers (PNG average, adapted context). This translates into a potential 18.4 to 20.8% increase in GDP per capita.
• Gender Employment Disparities (2021):
  • Labor Force Participation (15+): Male - 75%, Female - 52% (Total ~ 45% Female)
  • Wage Employment: Male predominantly in cash-based, formal jobs (64%); Female largely own-account/unpaid (77%).
• Gender-Based Violence (DHS 2016-2018): >80% of partnered women experienced intimate partner violence (IPV). PNG ranked among the world's highest. 9.5% reported non-partner sexual violence (NPV). Many forms of discrimination in law, policy, business, home, or community.