20230616-五矿期货-有色金属早报_6页_1mb

Overview: The report analyzes key factors influencing metal prices based on recent economic data and inventories. Weak Chinese economic indicators and a sliding USD contributed to positive price movements, but美联储 hawkishness tempered enthusiasm. Supply-demand dynamics in each metal affect near-term trends and price ranges.

Copper: China's May data missed expectations, and USD weakness boosted prices; LME copper rose 0.44% to 8563美元/吨, while Shanghai gained to 68330元/吨. LME inventory decreased, supporting cash prices, but domestic demand is weakening marginally. Import losses widened. Price range: 67200-68500元/吨.

Aluminum: Transactions were lower, with Shanghai closing at 18625元/吨. High inventories and trade data showed export declines and import increases, indicating surplus pressures. Aluminum remains in low inventory levels. Price range: 17300-18800元/吨 domestically, with overseas range 2100-2400美元.

Tin: Prices surged 1.21%, amid higher domestic production and strong overseas premiums. Fundamental supply issues and demand remain constrained. Price range: 180000-230000元/吨, with overseas: 24000-29000美元.

Nickel: Market enthusiasm from macro factors led price jumps on both LME and Shanghai exchanges. However, fundamentals show gradual supply growth and inventory concerns, with potential demand from stainless steel not yet strong. Price range: 150000-180000元/吨.

Key Data Summary: Highlights include LME cash/3M spreads and SHFE inventories, noting shifts in cash premiums and spot markets for various metals. Currency and interest rates data provided, with USD/JPY quotes stabilizing slightly. Market views suggest ongoing monitoring of economic policies and liquidity changes as influential factors.