2016年-世界发展银行全球_Uganda_Economic_Update_April_2016___Unleashing_the_Power_of_Public_Investment_Management_80页_7mb

Uganda Economic Update - Seventh Edition, April 2016

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of Uganda's economic performance and outlines the importance of improving public investment management (PIM) to enhance economic growth and social impact.

Main Economic Developments (Part 1)

1.1 Growth Remained Modest Due to Uncertainties

• Economic growth was constrained by macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly due to the national election and a slowing global economy.
• Commodity price declines and policy adjustments in major economies like China and Brazil contributed to the economic challenges.

1.2 Heightened Inflationary Pressures Induced Monetary Policy Tightening

• The Ugandan Shilling depreciated by over 40% against the US Dollar by September 2015, the largest depreciation since 1994.
• Inflation reached 8.5% by December 2015, prompting the Bank of Uganda to raise its policy rate by six percentage points over 12 months to contain inflationary pressures.

1.3 Cautious Fiscal Policy Outperformed by Election Spending Pressures

• Fiscal policy was generally effective, with revenues and expenditures largely on target.
• However, election-related spending increased the fiscal deficit, which reached 6.4% of GDP in FY 2015/16.

1.4 Uganda's External Position Weakened Further

• The external current account deficit widened to 9.6% of GDP due to declining exports and reduced foreign direct investment (FDI).
• The trade deficit increased from 8.5% to 9.3% of GDP, with construction-related imports exacerbating the situation.

Economic Outlook (Part 1)

2.1 Economic Growth Prospects Improve

• Growth is expected to rise to 5.9% in FY 2016/17 and continue on an upward trajectory.
• The recovery is driven by public investment in infrastructure and private sector activity, particularly in oil-related projects.

2.2 Risks Are Mainly Downward

• Risks include a low revenue base, inefficient infrastructure investment, and potential over-spending on debt.
• External shocks such as global economic stagnation and regional instability could further challenge growth.

Moving Beyond Spending to Creating Productive Assets (Part 2)

3.1 Fiscal Strategy Aligned with National Development Priorities

• Uganda's fiscal policy aims to address growth constraints, especially the large infrastructure deficit.
• The strategy is also driven by potential oil revenues, which could be used to finance critical infrastructure and human capital.

3.2 Smart Budgeting Undermined by Implementation Challenges

• Despite well-structured fiscal planning, implementation challenges have led to under-execution of the budget.
• The under-spending rate was 36% on average, with energy and transport sectors experiencing the most significant shortfalls.

3.3 Fiscal Under-Execution Matched by Investment and Economic Inefficiencies

• Public investments are not generating the expected economic returns.
• Over the past decade, only 70% of every dollar invested in public capital has been returned in economic activity, compared to higher returns in countries like the USA.

Why Uganda Is Not Generating Good Returns on Investments (Part 2)

4.1 Inefficiencies in Investment Lead to Failed Capital Accumulation

• Poor project selection, weak appraisals, and political considerations have undermined the effectiveness of public investments.
• Inefficient management and lack of coordination result in poor utilization of public capital.

4.2 Global Experience on PIM System Improvements

• Successful PIM systems in other countries emphasize institutional strengthening, standardization of processes, and legal and regulatory reforms.
• These systems ensure that investments are selected, executed, and managed effectively to maximize returns.

4.3 Uganda's PIM System: Functional but Needs Improvement

• Uganda's PIM system follows the budget process but lacks efficiency and effectiveness.
• The system needs to be improved to ensure better project quality at the outset and efficient execution.

How to Maximize Value from Public Investments (Part 2)

5.1 Key Recommendations for PIM Reform

• A. Strengthen Institutional Arrangements: Streamline and improve the management of public investments.
• B. Standardize Project Processes: Ensure all agencies follow a consistent framework for project identification, preparation, and execution.
• C. Address Legal and Regulatory Gaps: Improve the legal environment to support better investment management and accountability.

Key Messages

• Uganda has pursued an expansionary fiscal policy to boost growth and development, particularly through infrastructure investment.
• Despite this, public investments have not delivered the expected economic returns.
• The inefficiency in investment execution is a major constraint on growth and development.
• A more efficient PIM system is essential for maximizing the returns on public investments and ensuring that oil revenues contribute to the country's development.
• The country ranks 46th out of 71 in PIM quality, lagging behind regional peers like Ghana and Rwanda.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that to achieve its development goals, Uganda must improve its public investment management system. This includes better project selection, efficient implementation, and strong institutional and legal frameworks. The focus should be on converting public investments into productive assets that drive economic growth and social development, particularly in the context of oil revenue utilization and infrastructure expansion.