20231024-招银国际-贵州茅台-600519.SH-3Q_rev_np_+13_16__mixed_near-term_outlook_5页_1mb

Kweichou Moutai's third-quarter performance showed a 16% year-on-year increase in net profit to RMB16.9 billion, but with a deceleration in growth momentum compared to the first half of the year, which saw a 20.8% rise. Revenue growth slowed to 13.1% in the quarter, reflecting a decline in restocking activities by distributors after the Golden Week Holiday, which has dampened consumer sentiment. Despite this, the flagship Feitian bottle prices remained stable at around RMB2,900 per bottle. The company's direct channel sales, including the "iMoutai" platform, experienced rapid growth of 35% year-on-year, contributing significantly to revenue. Cash flows improved notably in the quarter, with operating cash flow surging by 432% year-on-year, reaching RMB50 billion. However, the valuation outlook remains mixed, with the target price reduced by 7% to RMB2,279, and a modest long-term P/E multiple. Earnings estimates have been revised downward for 2023-2025, reflecting weaker-than-expected results, while medium-term prospects are supported by brand strength and scarcity, potentially offsetting demand risks. Overall, Kweichou Moutai faces a mixed near-term outlook due to holiday effects and consumer fatigue, but maintains a long-term growth trajectory with moderate adjustments in financial metrics.