2016年-世界发展银行全球_How_Do_People_in_MENA_Evaluate_their_Economic_Prospects__4页_453kb

MENA Knowledge and Learning: How Do People in MENA Evaluate Their Economic Prospects?

Core Content

This document from the World Bank's MENA Economic Monitor (April 2016, Number 156) examines the economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, focusing on both macroeconomic indicators and subjective well-being (SWB) assessments. It highlights the challenges posed by prolonged low oil prices, civil conflicts, and their impact on economic growth and fiscal sustainability.

Main Points

1. Economic Outlook for MENA

• The short-term economic outlook for MENA is "cautiously pessimistic" due to several factors:
  • Prolonged low oil prices: The oil market is settling into a "new normal" of low prices.
  • Civil conflicts: Wars in Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Iraq have severely impacted economic activity.
  • Forced displacements: These have negatively affected economies in Lebanon, Jordan, and other countries.
• Growth Prospects:
  • Regional GDP growth is expected to average 3% in 2016, and 1.2% per capita.
  • Growth is projected to rise slightly to 4% in 2017 and 2018, but still remains below historical levels.

2. Subjective Well-Being (SWB) Indicators

• People in MENA are increasingly dissatisfied with their quality of life, as shown by Gallup's life satisfaction index.
• GCC countries and conflict zones (Yemen, Syria) have seen a decline in life satisfaction.
• Tunisia and Egypt had lower satisfaction before 2011, but saw a rebound in 2013–2014 due to favorable oil prices and political stability.

3. Macroeconomic Trends

• Oil Importers:
  • Growth is expected to slow down despite low oil prices.
  • Remittance inflows from GCC to other countries have declined (e.g., by 0.4% in 2015).
  • These declines are straining the balance of payments in oil-importing countries.
• Oil Exporters:
  • Growth is also affected by low oil prices and civil wars.
  • GCC countries are expected to see a decline in growth from 3.1% in 2015 to 2.2% in 2016.
  • Libya and Iraq face large fiscal deficits (59.9% and 20% of GDP in 2016 respectively).
  • Iran is expected to benefit from sanctions lifting, with oil exports returning to pre-sanctions levels.

4. Oil Price Projections

• The World Bank forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $37 in 2016 and $48 in 2017.
• A rebound to $50 per barrel is expected only by December 2019.
• The U.S. is now the swing producer, not Saudi Arabia, due to the shale oil boom.
• Oil prices are expected to remain below the fiscal breakeven levels for many MENA oil exporters.

5. Fiscal Sustainability

• Prolonged cheap oil is shrinking fiscal space and threatening fiscal sustainability.
• GCC countries are expected to have fiscal deficits of 16.3–16.9% of GDP in 2016, with Saudi Arabia facing the largest deficit at $118 billion in 2016.
• Qatar is expected to see its first fiscal deficit in 2016 after years of surplus.
• Public debt in GCC countries is expected to rise, particularly in Bahrain (83.7% of GDP in 2016).

6. Impact of Further Oil Price Drops

• If oil prices fall to $30 per barrel in 2016, the combined loss in oil revenues would be $151 billion.
• Fiscal deficits would increase to 21% of combined GDP.
• If prices fall further to $20 per barrel, the deficit could reach 24% of combined GDP.
• Fiscal reforms are necessary to reduce the deficit, and the document suggests that some reforms are already being implemented.

7. Reforms in Response to Low Oil Prices

• GCC governments are cutting current spending, halting capital expenditures, and introducing new taxes like VAT.
• VAT is planned to be introduced in January 2018.
• Efforts to improve energy and water efficiency are also underway, such as Saudi Arabia's SWCC aiming to double energy efficiency.
• Oil importers like Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan, and Morocco are also implementing fiscal and energy efficiency reforms.

Key Information

• Growth in 2016: 3% for the region, 1.2% per capita.
• GCC Growth: Falls from 3.1% in 2015 to 2.2% in 2016.
• Fiscal Deficits:
  • Saudi Arabia: 16.3% of GDP in 2016.
  • Bahrain: 16.9% of GDP in 2016.
  • Qatar: First fiscal deficit in 2016.
• Oil Price Projections:
  • $37 in 2016, $48 in 2017.
  • $50 per barrel expected by December 2019.
• Fiscal Breakeven Prices:
  • Saudi Arabia: $105.6.
  • Iran: $87.1.
  • UAE: $72.5.
• Remittances: Declined in 2015, straining economies of oil-importing countries.
• SWB Trends: Life satisfaction is declining in many MENA countries, especially in conflict zones.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while cheap oil has pushed some MENA countries to implement economic reforms, the long-term challenges of low oil prices, conflicts, and fiscal sustainability remain significant. The international community is urged to support inclusive reconstruction in war-affected countries like Syria to help restore economic stability and improve people's well-being.