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China Industrial Indicators Report Summary (June 17, 2025)

1. Overview

This report from Goldman Sachs analyzes key industrial indicators in China for May 2025. The data spans production, orders, financial metrics, exports, and sector-specific trends. Key findings highlight both strengths in automation and emerging technologies, alongside challenges such as slowing demand and economic headwinds in traditional sectors.

2. Industrial Production and Orders

• Industrial Robot Production: +36% year-over-year growth in May 2025, but month-over-month momentum weakened compared to historical seasonality. This growth was largely driven by the lithium battery sector, with companies like Yiheda (+99% YoY) leading, though consumer electronics saw declines (-9% YoY).
• Order Trends: Overall order growth moderated in May, with 6 out of 32 covered companies experiencing worsening month-over-month trends. Improvements were noted in battery-related segments, such as Inovance (+HSD% YoY), but declines in areas like consumer electronics and general industry impacted others. Average company order trends remained relatively stable but below pre-pandemic levels.

3. Macroeconomic Indicators

• Manufacturing PMI: At 49.5 in May, slightly above the contraction line but down from April's 49.0, indicating slowed expansion in manufacturing.
• Capex Financing: New additions in May were -10% YoY and +3% mom, reflecting cautious capital expenditure appetite amid trade uncertainties and financing constraints.
• Profitability (Q1 2025): Industrial enterprises with revenue >RMB 20 million showed a PBT margin of 5.6%, nearly flat compared to 5.4% in Q4 2024, and an ROE of 8.4%, down from 9.2% in Q4 2024. Utilization rates (74.1%) and inventory growth showed signs of deceleration.

4. Key Sector Highlights

• Automation and Robotics: Robust production volumes for industrial robots (+36% YoY) and machine tools (+6% YoY), supported by upgrades in energy and chemical industries. However, order trends in this sector slowed due to downstream capex uncertainties.
• New Energy Vehicles (NEV) and Batteries: EV sales and production grew +37% and +35% YoY in May, driven by battery demand, with lithium carbonate prices rising +3% YoY. Energy storage system (ESS) capacity increased significantly, but challenges in cost efficiency persist.
• Infrastructure and Construction: Headline FAI growth was +3% YoY in May, with traditional infrastructure stable but modern infrastructure facing slower momentum. Railway freight volumes saw mixed results, recovering slightly year-over-year but still below pre-pandemic levels.
• Property Market: Cooling trends continued, with primary city property GFA transaction volumes down -19% YoY. U.S. property indicators also showed hesitancy, with housing starts and building permits missing expectations.
• Consumer Goods: Smartphone shipments slowed (-2% YoY in April), while auto sales showed seasonal variation, with passenger vehicle inventory alerts indicating potential overstocking.

5. Commodity and Exchange Rate Trends

• Iron ore prices fell -10% YoY, copper -2%, while aluminum saw a slight increase +3%. Energy prices, including Brent oil, declined -15% YoY, reflecting global oversupply concerns.
• Battery metals like lithium carbonate and hydroxide saw price declines (-30%/-25% YoY), impacting cost structures for battery producers.

6. Risks and Opportunities

• Risks: Economic uncertainty from ongoing trade issues, slowing manufacturing activity (PMI <50), and reduced capital expenditure appetite could constrain growth. Weakness in consumer and real estate sectors adds to headwinds.
• Opportunities: Growth in automation, NEV, and renewable sectors, along with government support for industrial upgrades, presents potential in export-oriented industries. Continued innovation in ESS and semiconductors could drive future performance.

7. Conclusion and Outlook

The Chinese industrial sector shows resilience in automation and emerging technologies but faces moderation in overall demand and economic pressures. Goldm
Sachs recommends selective investment based on company-specific factors, with a positive outlook for high-growth segments and caution advised in cyclical areas. Overall, the report underscores a mixed but cautiously optimistic industrial landscape.