2009年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Maldives_2页_311kb

Maldives—Assessment Summary for the Asian Development Bank and World Bank

Core Content

The document provides an assessment of the Maldivian economy in the context of the global financial crisis and its impact on the country's fiscal and external balances. It outlines the economic challenges faced by the Maldives and the policy measures proposed by the authorities to address them, with a focus on securing financial support from the IMF.

Recent Economic Developments and Outlook

• Economic Impact of the Global Crisis: The global financial crisis severely affected the Maldivian economy, leading to a recession and a significant drop in tourism and construction activities.
• GDP Growth: Real GDP growth slowed from 5.75% in 2008 to an expected contraction of about 4% in 2009.
• Inflation Trends: Inflation has been declining due to lower import prices, but is projected to rise to 6.75% year-on-year by the end of 2009 as commodity prices recover.
• Fiscal Imbalances: Government expenditure as a share of GDP nearly doubled from 2004 to 2008, reaching 69% by end-2009 without adjustment. The fiscal deficit is expected to increase to 33% of GDP in 2009, up from 13% in 2008.
• Public Debt: Public debt is projected to rise to 92% of GDP in 2009.
• Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit is expected to decrease from 51% of GDP in 2008 to 30% in 2009, due to economic slowdown and lower import prices.
• Reserve Constraints: Reserve cover has fallen to about two months of imports by end-September 2009, prompting the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) to ration foreign exchange.
• Banking Sector Stress: The banking sector has faced significant pressure due to reduced access to external credit and increased non-performing loans (NPLs), particularly in the state-owned Bank of Maldives (BML), which accounts for 45% of commercial bank assets.

Economic Policies

The Maldivian authorities have committed to a comprehensive adjustment program to address the economic challenges. The main objectives are:

• Reduce Fiscal Deficit: To stabilize aggregate demand and restore medium-term fiscal sustainability.
• Stabilize Reserves: To absorb excess rufiyaa liquidity and bring reserves to prudent levels.
• Strengthen Banking Sector: Through improved regulation and supervision.

Fiscal Policy

• The core of the adjustment program is a large fiscal consolidation, aiming to reduce public debt to sustainable levels.
• Key measures include:
  • Wage Bill Reduction: Cuts in remuneration and staffing levels to reduce government spending.
  • Operational Cost Reduction: Reductions in non-priority capital expenditure and other operational expenses.
  • Revenue Enhancements: Introduction of an ad valorem tax on tourism, a business profits tax, and a goods and services tax.
• The fiscal deficit is projected to decrease to 4.25% of GDP in 2011.

Monetary Policy

• Monetary tightening will support fiscal adjustment and help reduce reserve pressures.
• Key steps include:
  • Ceasing deficit monetization.
  • Converting government debt with the MMA into negotiable securities.
  • Implementing open market operations.

Exchange Rate Policy

• The fixed exchange rate regime has been effective as a nominal anchor.
• The current peg is considered consistent with medium-term economic fundamentals if the adjustment program is implemented.
• The program aims to maintain the viability of the exchange rate peg through coordinated fiscal, monetary, and external financing measures.

Financial Sector Policies

• The authorities are strengthening the financial regulation and supervision framework.
• Key actions include:
  • Passage of the Banking Law.
  • Reforms to the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) Act.
  • Introduction of new regulations for loan classification, provisioning, and foreign currency position management.

IMF Relations

• The authorities and IMF staff have reached an agreement on the adjustment policies, which will be subject to approval by the IMF's Executive Board.
• The requested financial support is 700% of quota (approximately US$91 million) over three years, through a combination of a Stand-By Arrangement and an arrangement under the Exogenous Shock Facility.
• The request is tentatively scheduled for consideration by the IMF's Executive Board on December 4, 2009.
• The last Article IV Consultation was conducted on September 3, 2008.

Key Risks and Considerations

• Implementation Risks: Delays or insufficient implementation of the fiscal adjustment could significantly affect the program's success.
• Global Economic Risks: The global economic environment poses both upside and downside risks to the Maldivian economy.