20231212-国投证券-储能月度跟踪_11月国内储能项目中标量环比高增_4h系统价格创新低_13页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Electricity and Public Utilities Industry Report (December 2023): The report analyzes the energy storage market, focusing on December 2023 trends, including domestic and international developments. Key findings highlight a significant increase in storage project wins, notably in China's domestic market, with substantial price decreases in systems and battery components. This, coupled with widened peak-valley electricity price differences, boosts economic viability. Overseas markets show strong growth in countries like Germany and the US but face seasonal and policy-related challenges. Investment recommendations emphasize specific companies, with risks tied to policy execution and market dynamics.

Market Overview: In 2023, the energy storage sector experienced high growth, with 11-month data showing a sharp rise in projects. For instance, the 11th month saw a 606% increase in GW capacity and a 1718% jump in GWh capacity for storage bids, outperforming broader market trends.
Domestic Energy Storage: China's market is driven by strong bidding and declining prices. November 2023 saw 58.3 GW/2052 GWh in storage projects, with EPC and system costs dropping dramatically, e.g., 4-hour system prices averaging 1324 Yuan/Wh. Battery prices fell 51%, supporting cost efficiencies.
Industrial and Commerce Storage: Benefiting from large peak-valley price gaps exceeding 0.7 Yuan/kWh in key regions, this segment shows improved profitability and is recommended for investment in companies like 盛弘股份 and 金盘科技.
Overseas Household Storage: Markets like Germany, Italy, and the US display strong year-on-year growth but quarterly fluctuations. Germany's 2023 November addition was up by 8482% YoY in MW capacity, yet环比 declined. Italy's Q2 growth was robust but slowed. US and other regions face policy shifts and price delays.
United States Energy Storage: Significant gains in Q2 2023, with 16,803 MW/55,981 MWh added, projected for higher annual totals up to 8.35 GW. Monthly data showed falls in October 2023, possibly from policy-related delays.
Investment Recommendations: Based on forced allocation demands and falling cobalt/lithium prices, recommend technology-focused firms such as 盛弘股份 for PCS supply and 金盘科技 for increasing orders. Also, 【开勒股份】 and 【芯能科技】 are suggested for their roles in industrial/commercial storage due to economic benefits.
Risk Prompt: Key risks include potential delays in policy implementation, slower project completions, falling electricity prices, and uncertainties in overseas expansion efforts.