20151214-招商证券_香港_-Nov_sales_+18YoYexpect_buoyant_sentiment_to_sustain_12页_1mb_1mb

报告摘要

China Property Sector Industry Report Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the China property sector as of November 2015, highlighting key performance metrics, market sentiment, and investment outlook. It includes sales data, price trends, and valuation information for major developers and the sector as a whole.

Main Views and Key Information

Sales Performance

National Home Sales: Increased by 18% YoY in November 2015, reaching RMB783 billion, with a 3% MoM increase.
Selected Developers' Sales:
- 21 listed developers achieved 20% YoY growth in contracted sales.
- Wanda and Yuzhou led with 56% and 47% MoM growth, respectively.
Tiered Performance:
- Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities: Showed strong growth in sales GFA, up 23% and 13% YoY respectively.
- Tier-3 cities: Sales GFA remained flat YoY.

Price Trends

Major Cities: Home prices continued to rise, with a 18.5% YoY increase in the major price index in November 2015.
2016 Outlook: Expected 5-7% YoY price increase in major cities, while Tier-3 cities showed less buoyancy.

Investment and Construction

Residential Investment: Grew by 0.7% YoY in 11M15, remaining sluggish.
New Start of Construction: Declined by 21% YoY in November 2015, with a 15% YoY decline in construction area for 11M15.
Reasons for Weakness:
- Sharp decline in investments in Tier-3 cities.
- Developers slowing down prime-located project development due to soaring land costs.

2016 Expectations

Contracted Sales Growth: Expected to grow by 7% YoY in 2016, mainly due to price increases.
Sales Volume: Likely to remain flat or slightly drop.

Credit Policies

Government Measures: Expected to continue easing, including:
- Increased mortgage funding via securitization.
- Mortgage interest tax deductions.
Valuation: The sector is trading at a 39% discount to end-FY15E NAV, considered attractive.

Investment Rating

Industry Rating: OVERWEIGHT, indicating the sector is expected to outperform the market over the next 12 months.
Company Ratings:
- Buy: For companies like China Overseas, CR Land, Shimao Prop, CIFI, CM Land, COGO, Yuzhou, and Agile Property.
- Neutral: For Greentown China and Country Garden.

Key Financial Data (Selected Developers)

Company	Ticker	Rating	Current Price (HK$)	Target Price (HK$)	Upside	NAV Discount (%)	FY15E P/E	FY16E P/E	FY15E Yield (%)	FY16E Yield (%)	FY15E P/B	FY16E P/B	Net Gearing FY14 (%)	Net Gearing FY15 (%)	Net Gearing FY16 (%)
China Overseas	688 HK	Buy	25.75	30.0	17%	24%	8.0	6.7	2.5%	3.0%	1.3	1.1	27.1	22.4	23.2
CR Land	1109 HK	Buy	21.15	23.8	13%	36%	9.9	8.3	2.3%	2.4%	1.2	1.1	40.5	47.2	48.9
Shimao Prop	813 HK	Buy	13.12	17.7	35%	61%	4.8	4.3	6.7%	6.8%	0.7	0.6	58.6	64.5	67.0
CIFI	884 HK	Buy	1.65	2.0	21%	59%	4.1	3.4	6.3%	7.3%	0.7	0.6	66.6	69.0	65.3
CM Land	978 HK	Buy	1.49	2.0	34%	52%	13.0	5.3	0.8%	1.9%	1.1	0.9	49.4	59.3	60.5
COGO	81 HK	Buy	2.75	3.0	9%	67%	4.9	3.0	2.0%	3.4%	0.5	0.4	77.0	66.1	68.1
Yuzhou	1628 HK	Buy	1.89	2.4	27%	68%	4.3	4.1	9.1%	9.1%	0.6	0.5	59.8	66.9	66.0

Sector Valuation and Performance

NAV Discount: The sector is trading at a 39% discount to end-FY15E NAV.
Valuation Band: As of 11 Dec 2015, the sector is close to 1SD below the 6-year historical mean.
Performance Metrics:
- Absolute Return (1m): 2.1%
- Relative Return (1m): 9.0%
- Absolute Return (6m): -11.4%
- Relative Return (6m): 7.8%
- Absolute Return (12m): 2.3%
- Relative Return (12m): 5.4%

Conclusion

The China property sector showed a positive trend in sales and prices, particularly in major cities, despite sluggish investment and construction activity. The report suggests that the sector is undervalued and recommends an OVERWEIGHT rating, with several developers receiving a BUY rating based on their performance and valuation. The outlook for 2016 is cautiously optimistic, driven by potential credit policy easing and price increases.

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