世界银行-泰国经济监测_2025年7月_数字增长之路（英）-2025.7_75页_4mb

Thai Economic Monitor 2025 Summary

Part 1: Recent Economic Developments and Outlook

• Growth Momentum:

  • 2025 Q1 GDP: 3.1% YoY (driven by exports/motor vehicles, surged due to pre-tariff rush).
  • 2025 Projection: 1.8% (FY25–2026), down from 2.5% in 2024 due to external headwinds and weak domestic demand.

• Key Challenges:

  • Trade Policy Risk: U.S. tariffs → slower exports (↓59% YoY), China’s tourist decline → tourism slump (~–24% YoY).
  • Negative Inflation: Headline inflation at –0.2% (lowest in ASEAN), reflecting subdued demand and subsidies.
  • Fiscal Strain: Public debt reached 64.4% GDP (up 23 pp from 2019), driven by fiscal stimulus.

Part 2: Digital Transformation as a Driver

• Digital Ecosystem:

  • Foundations:
    • Connectivity: Near-universal mobile broadband, but fixed broadband limited.
    • Data Infrastructure: 144,000 m² data centers (Region middle-tier), FDI surged in cloud/health sectors (US$200 bln in Q1 2025).
    • Public/Commercial Infrastructure: PromptPay (real-time payments, 96% adult usage) → financial inclusion.
  • Role of Policy:
    • Data Protection: Personal Data Protection Act (PDPA) and cybersecurity frameworks in place.
    • Accelerators: DPI (National ID/GDx), digital skills training solutions.

• Use Cases:

  • Healthcare: Digital tools for COVID response, telemedicine expansion, but data-sharing gaps.
  • E-commerce/MSMEs: High consumer digital engagement (~90% online shoppers), limited MSME digital adoption.
    • Recommendation: $157B stimulus reallocated toward infrastructure to boost growth.

Part 3: Global and Geopolitical Risks

• External Headwinds:
  • Trade tensions → slower exports/outward investment (e.g., China stimulus delay, BOT cut rates to 1.75%).
  • Ongoing supply chain disruptions, volatility in shorter-term forecasts.

Conclusions

• Digital Hub Strategy: Thailand needs:
  • Broad-based trade liberalization and quality investment to offset declining exports.
  • Structural reforms (human capital, digital infrastructure) to sustain medium-term growth.
• Prioritizing Private Investment: Boost FDI targeting digital services/automotive, linking with ASEAN connectivity.
• Financial Resilience: Debt management to avoid crowding-out risks; limit fiscal deficits.

Key Messages:

• Economic growth slowed to 1.8% in 2025 amid global uncertainty.
• Digital infrastructure constitutes a converging growth and inclusivity pathway.
• Fiscal space is shrinking; targeted public investments must replace universal transfers.

End.