2025-06-15-高盛-哈德逊太平洋地产公司（HPP）_模型与目标价格更新_8页_356kb

Summary of Goldman Sachs HPP Financial Analysis Report (June 16, 2025)

Key Changes in Financial Estimates

Goldman Sachs updated its financial model for Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. (HPP) based on 1Q25 results and a $576mn equity offering completed on June 13, 2025. Core Funds From Operations (FFO) estimates increased for 2025-2027 due to higher office net operating income from strong leasing progress and reduced general and administrative (G&A) expenses. Interest expense decreased assuming equity proceeds are used to reduce debt.

New Core FFO Estimates:

• 2025 (E): $64.8 million (40% growth from previous estimates)
• 2026 (E): $90.9 million (40% growth)
• 2027 (E): $112.4 million (40% growth)

Price Target Update

The price target was raised from $2.30 to $2.60 per share, based on a revised AFFO multiple of 12.8x, reflecting improved leverage and growth prospects.

Valuation and Current Metrics

• Current NAREIT FFO is $53.1 million (June 16, 2025).
• HPP trades at a 15.1x NTM FFO multiple, with historical multiples ranging from 6.4x to 16.9x.
• Net debt/EBITDA was 12.6x in Q1 2025, improving to 8.1x by 2025, 6.9x in 2026, and 6.2x in 2027.

Upside/Downside Risks

Factors include: demand for office space in HPP's markets, development NOI progress, outcomes of debt maturity management, and improvements in studio NOI. Notable risk includes sensitivity to changes in leasing performance.

Market and Financial Position

• Raised M&A rank to 3, indicating moderate likelihood of acquisition potential.
• ROE has decreased from 7.6% in 2024 to 7.0% expected in 2025.
• Market capitalization stands at $388.8 million, with revenue forecast around $800 million by 2027.