飞机装备市场（英文版）_48页-2mb

Aerostructure Equipment Market Summary

Core Content

The aerostructure equipment market has experienced a significant shift since 2012, moving from a projected decline to a more positive development due to new aircraft programs, rate increases in legacy programs, and the push for automation. The study aims to validate assumptions, update the market model for 2015–2020, and assess future scenarios beyond 2020.

Main Market Trends

• Growth Drivers: The market is primarily driven by rate increases in legacy programs, new aircraft programs, and increased automation. These factors are expected to continue influencing the market in the future.
• Automation and Flexibility: There is a growing demand for automated and semi-automated systems, especially in composite parts production. Flexibility in production systems is key to meeting rising quality standards and reducing unit costs.
• Outsourcing and Integration: OEMs are increasingly outsourcing production to reduce the number of suppliers and share risks. This trend is expected to benefit integrators and service providers.
• Emerging Markets: China is identified as a key growth opportunity for established players due to the lack of local expertise in aerostructure equipment. However, geopolitical issues and financial sanctions are currently limiting market expansion in Russia.
• Service Offerings: The service market is growing, with a focus on maintenance, engineering, and spare parts. Service provision is becoming an essential part of the value proposition for suppliers.

Key Market Segments

• Automated Production Systems: Fastening systems, composite systems, and station/line equipment.
• Service Offerings: Includes third-party services, maintenance, and engineering.
• Manual Tools: Hand power and manual tools are still relevant but less emphasized compared to automation.
• Conveyor Systems: Used for handling and storage, with a focus on automation.

Key Suppliers

• Established Suppliers: Broetje, Gemcor, Loxin, Electrolimpact, MTorres, Sener, AIT.
• Emerging Players: CTi, Reel, and others with potential to enter the market, especially from the automotive industry.

Future Scenarios (2020–2025)

• Worst Case Scenario: Market size of USD 2.2 billion in 2025.
• Best Case Scenario: Market size of USD 2.5 billion in 2025.
• Plateau Scenario: Expected from 2020 to 2025, with a potential for growth until the next single aisle generation.

Key Findings – Market

• The market is experiencing a boom due to rate increases and new programs.
• The "golden age" of the industry is expected to continue until 2020.
• There is a consensus that the current investment boom will last at least another 5 years.
• Automation is becoming a major trend, with a focus on quality and efficiency.
• The introduction of new technologies like robotics and 3D printing is expected to have a significant impact in the coming years.

Key Findings – Products

• Automation: Fully automated assembly lines are becoming essential for meeting quality standards and increasing production rates.
• Flexible Production: Equipment must be universally deployable to increase efficiency and reduce costs.
• Incremental Innovation: Modifications and retrofits are expected to drive sustainable demand.
• New Materials: Composites are gaining importance, with research into CFK, GLARE, and thermoplastics.
• Industry 4.0: While not a major topic yet, it is expected to influence the market in the future.
• 3D Printing: Seen as a potential game changer, though it is not expected to have a major impact until 2025.

Key Findings – Customers

• Desire for Automation: Customers are looking for automated systems to meet quality and time standards.
• Outsourcing: OEMs are shifting production to suppliers, creating opportunities for Tier-1 suppliers.
• Dual Sourcing: OEMs are adopting dual sourcing strategies to reduce risk, though this has a negligible impact on tooling demand.
• Emerging OEMs: Companies like Bombardier, Embraer, and Mitsubishi are entering the single aisle market, with COMAC's impact still uncertain.

Key Findings – Suppliers

• Consolidation: Mergers and acquisitions are expected to continue as OEMs seek fewer suppliers.
• Turnkey Capabilities: Suppliers with turnkey and service provision capabilities are becoming more important.
• Fragmentation: The market includes key suppliers and numerous small, local companies.
• Newcomers: Automotive suppliers are entering the market due to the demand for automation.
• Core Competencies: Key suppliers have developed distinct core competencies that give them a competitive edge.

Market Drivers

Market Forecast

• Global Aircraft Production: Expected to grow by 60,300 units between 2015 and 2025.
• Large Commercial Aircraft (LCA): Forecasted to produce 20,500 units between 2015 and 2025, with Airbus and Boeing as key drivers.
• Emerging OEMs: Bombardier, Embraer, and Mitsubishi are pushing into the single aisle market, while COMAC's impact is still uncertain.
• China: Expected to become a significant market for aerostructure equipment over the next decade.
• Russia: Currently constrained by geopolitical issues and financial sanctions.

Impact of External Factors

• Geopolitical Issues: Affecting Russia's market potential.
• Economic Growth: Driving demand for air travel and cargo in emerging markets.
• Population Growth: Increasing the number of potential passengers and cargo needs.
• Flight Volume: Resilient to external shocks and expected to double in the next 15 years.
• Oil Price: Influences airline profitability and the demand for more efficient aircraft.

Conclusion

The aerostructure equipment market is currently in a positive phase, driven by rate increases, new programs, and automation. The study highlights the importance of turnkey capabilities, the role of emerging markets, and the impact of new technologies. The market is expected to continue growing until 2020, with a plateau likely from 2020 to 2025. Future scenarios suggest a range of market sizes, with automation and new technologies playing a critical role in shaping the industry.