航空结构模具市场（英文版）_16页_693kb

Summary of Roland Berger's Study on the Aerostructure Tooling Market

Core Content

The Roland Berger study provides an in-depth analysis of the aerostructure tooling market, highlighting the key drivers of growth and the potential market scenarios for the period 2018–2023. The report outlines the market's evolution from stagnation in 2012 to renewed optimism in 2018, driven by rate increases, new aircraft programs, and the increased adoption of automation.

Main Drivers of the Market

The report identifies three primary drivers that significantly influence the aerostructure tooling market:

1. Further Rate Increases in Legacy Programs

   • This refers to the "rate tooling" market component.
   • The base case assumes rate increases in programs like the A320neo family, B737 MAX, and F-35.
   • These increases are expected to drive growth, with a projected rise in annual growth from 3.4% to 5.7% in the base case.

2. New Aircraft Programs

   • This corresponds to the "new tooling development" market component.
   • The introduction of new aircraft, such as the Boeing B797 and Northrop Grumman's B-21 Raider, is a major growth driver.
   • These programs are expected to increase the installed base of production lines, leading to a projected annual growth increase from 3.4% to 11.0%.

3. Continuous Spend and Automation

   • This includes increased automation, tooling replacement, and improvements due to build process enhancements.
   • Automation is a key factor in the market, with a projected automation penetration rate of 70% in the enhanced case.
   • The impact of automation on continuous spend is expected to increase annual growth from 3.4% to 4.4%.

Market Scenarios

Three scenarios are presented to forecast the market's development:

• Base Case: Assumes announced rate increases, limited new programs, and a moderate automation penetration rate (60%).

  • Forecast annual growth: 3.4%
  • Total market size by 2023: USD 2.7 billion

• Enhanced Case: Assumes further rate increases and greater automation.

  • Forecast annual growth: 6.7%
  • Total market size by 2023: USD 3.3 billion

• Aggressive Case: Assumes multiple new aircraft programs and accelerated automation.

  • Forecast annual growth: 11.9%
  • Total market size by 2023: USD 4.0 billion

Key Findings

• The base case is considered the most likely scenario, as it reflects current market dynamics and announced rate increases.
• The enhanced case is seen as a possible upside scenario if automation continues to advance and OEMs invest more in it.
• The aggressive case is the most optimistic, but it requires significant OEM decisions and faster development of new programs, which may not be realistic in the near term.
• Automation is highlighted as the pivotal factor for suppliers to position themselves for growth.
• OEM decisions are central to the market, particularly in terms of production rates and automation adoption.
• The market is expected to be driven by continuous spend and automation penetration, rather than new programs in the short term.

Market Concentration and Trends

• The aerostructure tooling market has seen consolidation, with the top ten players accounting for around 40% of the market in 2016.
• New programs and ramp-ups are the main drivers, but automation is becoming increasingly important.
• Digitalization and smart factory concepts are transforming the production process, affecting all parts of the value chain from planning to assembly.
• Tooling suppliers need to not only master the technical aspects of automation but also develop a strong business case to convince OEMs to invest in automation enhancements.

Conclusion

The report concludes that the aerostructure tooling market is on the verge of a new era of growth, with automation playing a crucial role. Suppliers that can effectively integrate automation into their offerings and align with OEMs' strategies will be best positioned to benefit from the market's evolution.