20180514-USDA-U.S._2018_19_Rice_Production_Projected_at_203.2_Million_Cwt_26页_1mb

报告摘要

Rice Outlook Summary (May 2018)

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the U.S. and global rice market outlook for the 2018/19 market year. It includes projections for production, supply, use, imports, exports, and prices, as well as insights into planting progress and market dynamics.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Production

U.S. 2018/19 rice production is projected at 203.2 million cwt, an 14% increase from the previous year.
Long-grain accounts for most of the production growth, with a 17.5% increase.
Planted area rose to 2.69 million acres, up 9%, and harvested area is expected at 2.67 million acres, an 12.5% increase.
Yield is forecast at 7,610 pounds per acre, a 1.4% increase, but still below the 2013/14 record of 7,694 pounds.

Planting Progress

By May 6, 68% of the U.S. rice crop was planted, slightly behind the 2013–2017 average.
Gulf Coast states (Louisiana, Texas) had above-average planting progress, with Louisiana at 96% and Texas at 84%.
Northern states (Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi) lagged behind, with Arkansas at 77% and Missouri at 65%.
California had the slowest progress at 12% planted, due to an abnormally cool spring.

Emergence

Emergence was 44% nationwide by May 6, well behind last year’s 64% and the 5-year average of 50%.
Gulf Coast states were exceptions, with Louisiana at 87% and Texas at 77%.
California had 0% emergence, unchanged from last year.

Carryin and Supplies

Total carryin for 2018/19 is 34.3 million cwt, down 26% from the previous year.
Long-grain carryin is 20.4 million cwt, a 34% decrease.
Medium- and short-grain carryin is 10.4 million cwt, a 10% decrease.
Total U.S. rice supplies are projected at 263.5 million cwt, an 5% increase, due to a larger crop.

Use and Exports

Total use of U.S. rice is expected at 223.0 million cwt, an 3% increase.
Exports are projected at 101.0 million cwt, an 5% increase, driven by larger supplies and lower prices.
Long-grain exports are up 3 million cwt, with Latin America and Mediterranean markets showing growth.
Milled rice exports are forecast at 67.0 million cwt, up 3%, with Latin America, Middle East, and Northeast Asia as key markets.

Prices

Long-grain farm prices are projected to decline to $11.00–$12.00 per cwt, down 20 cents from the previous year.
Southern medium- and short-grain prices are expected to fall 30 cents.
California medium- and short-grain prices are projected to rise 40 cents, due to smaller intended planting area.
All-rice farm prices are forecast to decline 20 cents to $11.90–$12.90 per cwt.

Global Outlook

Production

Global production is projected at a record 489.5 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from the previous year.
Production increase is driven by expanded area, especially in Bangladesh, India, Thailand, and the U.S..
China, Colombia, Egypt, Iraq, South Korea, and Venezuela are expected to see declines in harvested area.

Consumption

Global consumption is projected at 488.6 million tons, up 1.5%.
China accounts for the largest share of the increase, with consumption rising to 145.0 million tons.
Thailand is expected to see a 10.5% drop in consumption due to government stock sales.
Japan and South Korea are projected to continue declining consumption due to diet diversification and aging populations.

Ending Stocks

Global ending stocks are projected to rise to 144.7 million tons, the highest since 2000/01.
U.S. ending stocks are expected to increase 18% to 40.5 million cwt.
China leads the increase in global stocks, with 97.3 million tons, slightly below the 1999/2000 record.

Trade

Global trade is projected to reach a record 49.5 million tons in 2019.
Export increases are expected from China, Paraguay, Thailand, the U.S., and Venezuela, with Thailand leading the growth.
India is expected to see the largest export decline of 0.2 million tons.
Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to be the largest rice importing region in 2019, up 6% from 2018.
Nigeria is the second-largest importer, with 3.0 million tons projected for 2019.

Prices

Global rice prices are rising due to stronger demand.
Thailand's regular milled white rice prices increased 1–2%, supported by Philippines and Indonesia purchases.
Premium jasmine rice from Thailand reached $1,115 per ton.
Vietnam's prices rose 7%, surpassing Thailand's for comparable grades.
U.S. long-grain milled rice prices increased to $620 per ton, while rough rice prices remained $330 per ton.
California medium-grain milled rice prices rose to $948 per ton, while export prices remained $970 per ton.

Key Information

U.S. production is up 14%, driven by area expansion and modest yield gains.
Ending stocks are expected to rise 18%, despite higher use and exports, due to the larger crop.
Global production and consumption are both record highs, with ending stocks also reaching a new high.
Thailand and Vietnam are major rice exporters, with Thailand leading in milled rice and Vietnam in premium grades.
U.S. rice prices are declining in most classes, with California prices rising due to reduced supply.
Sub-Saharan Africa is becoming a major rice importer, with Nigeria and Côte d'Ivoire leading the increase.