2022-11-21-亚开行-管理公私伙伴关系重新谈判的治理方法（英）_13页_523kb

Governance Brief Summary: Managing Public-Private Partnership Renegotiations

1. Introduction and Context

• Global challenges like high inflation, fiscal consolidation, climate change, and geopolitical instability impact infrastructure investment, making PPPs vulnerable to disruptions.
• Climate change poses significant risks, e.g., an 11% GDP loss in Southeast Asia by 2100.
• Effective PPP governance requires integrating fiscal sustainability, transparent procurement, and risk-sharing mechanisms.
• The need for private investment intensifies due to fiscal constraints, but PPPs must be properly prepared and implemented to avoid costly renegotiations.

2. Global Data on PPP Renegotiations

• 33% of 146 surveyed global PPP projects experienced renegotiations.
• Renegotiation drivers: Increased construction costs (21%), government policy changes (19%), and changes in tariffs (16%).
• Regional variations:
  • Latin America and the Caribbean had the highest renegotiation rate (58%), mainly in transport.
  • East Asia and Southeast Asia had lower rates (12–13%).
• Common outcomes: Renegotiations often lead to cost and schedule extensions but can restore value for money if managed properly.

3. Drivers of Renegotiation

• External factors: Climate change, economic shocks (e.g., COVID-19), and technological disruptions.
• Internal factors: Poor contract design, weak project preparation, inadequate risk allocation, and opportunistic behavior.
• Examples of opportunism: The Odebrecht scandal in Brazil, where bribery enabled bid manipulation and abusive use of economic equilibrium clauses.

4. Remedies and Governance Measures

• Regulatory frameworks:
  • Establish thresholds, approval processes, and transparent dispute resolution mechanisms (e.g., Chile’s 2010 reforms).
  • Standardize contracts aligned with clear regulations to enhance efficiency and reduce disputes.
• Risk management and transparency:
  • Allocate risks appropriately during project preparation.
  • Ensure open disclosure of renegotiation decisions, costs, and justification for changes.
  • Use financial mechanisms like present value of revenue contracts to avoid renegotiations.

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

• Governments should:
  • Create frameworks balancing flexibility and control for renegotiations.
  • Foster institutional capacity and anti-corruption measures.
  • Consider limiting renegotiations in the early years of a contract.
• Project preparation is key:
  • Proactive risk identification and competitive tendering mitigate issues.
  • Use collaboration and alternative risk-sharing models (e.g., alliance contracting) to avoid disputes.

This brief emphasizes that governance and transparency are essential for managing PPP renegotiations effectively, balancing flexibility with fiscal prudence to achieve long-term infrastructure goals.