2023-02-28-IMF-西巴尔干地区公私伙伴关系的未来（英）_52页_1mb

报告摘要

The Future of PPPs in the Western Balkans: Analysis and Summary

Overview

This IMF Working Paper examines Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) as a tool for infrastructure development in the Western Balkans. It highlights both the potential benefits and risks associated with PPPs and emphasizes the need for robust governance frameworks to ensure their successful implementation. The Western Balkans, including Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia, face significant infrastructure gaps compared to the EU and regional peers, making PPPs an attractive financing option despite fiscal challenges.

Key Findings

Infrastructure Gap and Growth: The Western Balkans have lower infrastructure quality and capital stocks than the EU-15 countries and Central and Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) peers. Public investment is crucial for economic growth, but limited fiscal space due to high debt and deficits has led to reliance on PPPs for long-term financing.
Pros and Cons of PPPs: PPPs can improve efficiency and attract private capital, especially in meeting energy transition goals. However, they carry high fiscal risks, increased costs, and potential cancellations. Poor contract design and risk allocation often result in failures, as seen in Europe, due to issues like renegotiation and lack of transparency.
Governance Deficiencies: Current PPP governance in the Western Balkans is weak in areas such as institutional control, procurement, and fiscal risk management. Weaknesses include fragmented legal frameworks, inadequate budget integration, lack of Ministry of Finance involvement in project approval, and poor accounting for contingent liabilities.
Recommendations: Strengthen PPP governance by implementing a unified legal framework covering the entire project lifecycle, enhancing competitive procurement, limiting direct negotiations, and improving fiscal risk assessment tools like the PFRAM model. Specifically:
- Enhance institutional control with clear Ministry of Finance oversight and veto powers.
- Restrict unsolicited proposals and ensure transparent bidding processes.
- Standardize contract renegotiations and promote alternative dispute resolution.
- Improve accounting standards to better reflect PPPs' fiscal impacts.

Conclusions

PPPs can contribute to infrastructure development and economic growth in the Western Balkans but must be managed carefully to mitigate risks. Addressing governance gaps through stronger legal frameworks, fiscal discipline, and monitoring systems is critical for realizing long-term benefits. Policymakers should prioritize integrated public investment planning and budgetary controls to ensure PPPs remain affordable and efficient.