20250309-华泰期货-燃料油周报_油价中枢持续下移_低硫油市场预期偏弱_12页_844kb

Market Analysis
■ Crude Oil Market
Crude oil prices have remained under pressure, with Brent falling below the $70/barrel threshold this week. OPEC's announced 120,000 barrels per day supply increase, along with compensatory cuts, signals growing skepticism about the cartel's optimism on current fundamentals. Additionally, potential U.S. sanctions easing and the restart of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline could reduce geopolitical premiums amid improved U.S.-Russia relations. Meanwhile, extending the 25% tariff on Mexican crude to April 2 offers short-term relief for U.S. Gulf refineries, while Canada’s fuel oil tariffs may redirect some flows but face re-export barriers. Overall, short-term price volatility is driven by fluctuating risks; medium-term fundamentals remain bearish.

■ Fuel Oil Market
High-Sulfur Fuel Oil (HSFO):
HSFO fundamentals show resilience, with crack spreads, month-on-month premiums, and backwardation remaining strong. Supply constraints persist amid sanctions on Russia and Iran (Netherlands, February delivered 245k mt HSFO, 63k mt YoM drop), while refining demand is curtailed by high costs and diminished Chinese imports (Jan-Feb total arrivals: 44/81k mt vs 153/207k mt YoY). Valuations near peaks, though positive, are beginning to reveal negatives (e.g., demand cuts by refineries; Venezuelan output may funnel toward China). HSFO may maintain strength but faces upward resistance.

Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil (LSFO):
LSFO fundamentals show short-term stability, with muted supply elasticity from major producers (Kuwait, Feb: 34k mt; Brazil: 69k mt YoM drop). Future risks include stricter sulfur limits (finalized May 2025 in the Mediterranean), high marginal supply from overseas sources, and ongoing low-sulfur demand shifts (gasoline market gains). Mid-term outlook remains weak amid surging biofuels/clean energy adoption.

Strategy and Risks
HSFO: Neutral outlook with short-term support for tactical shorts.
LSFO: Short-term stable but long-term bearish amid replacement risks and stricter sulfur limits.
Risks: Unexpected demand shifts, crude prices divergence, China export quota cancellations.

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