CyberAgent (4751.T) 详细总结
核心内容
Citi Research has raised its forecasts for CyberAgent due to strong performance in the first half of FY9/25 and the unexpected success of a new game launched in April 2025. This new title has topped sales rankings in Japan and overseas, contributing significantly to the company's operating profit (OP) and providing a potential source of upside for the games business. The firm has also revised its target price to ¥1,900 from ¥1,400, with an expected share price return of 27.9% and a total return of 29.1%.
主要观点
- 业绩超预期：CyberAgent reported impressive H1 OP of ¥29.2bn, which is +9.7% YoY, surpassing the OP guidance of ¥42bn. Q2 OP reached ¥20.9bn, beating market expectations.
- 新游戏表现突出：The SD Gundam game, launched in April 2025, has performed exceptionally well, remaining high in sales rankings two months post-launch. This is expected to boost OP in FY9/25 H2 and FY9/26.
- 调整预测：Due to the success of the new title, the firm has revised its OP forecasts for the games business to ¥35.2bn for FY9/25 and ¥43.9bn for FY9/26.
- 连续增长预期：Based on current performance and the new game's success, the firm expects two consecutive years of OP growth for FY9/25 and FY9/26.
- 历史数据调整：CyberAgent announced retrospective revisions to its historical earnings back to FY9/20 to reflect the impact of accounting irregularities.
关键信息
财务预测
| 指标 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
| 销售收入 (¥M) |
719,451 |
801,236 |
862,692 |
922,946 |
978,846 |
| 毛利 (¥M) |
191,649 |
218,764 |
241,955 |
259,710 |
263,710 |
| 毛利率 (%) |
26.6 |
27.3 |
28.0 |
28.1 |
26.9 |
| EBITDA (Adj) (¥M) |
31,906 |
50,520 |
63,869 |
79,410 |
79,910 |
| EBITDA Margin (Adj) (%) |
4.4 |
6.3 |
7.4 |
8.6 |
8.2 |
| EBIT (Adj) (¥M) |
23,802 |
40,084 |
53,469 |
69,010 |
69,510 |
| EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) |
3.3 |
5.0 |
6.2 |
7.5 |
7.1 |
| 净利润 (¥M) |
4,578 |
14,488 |
24,685 |
39,010 |
39,710 |
| 净利润率 (%) |
0.6 |
1.8 |
2.9 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
| 核心NPAT (¥M) |
4,578 |
14,488 |
24,685 |
39,010 |
39,710 |
估值比率
| 比率 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
| 市盈率 (x) |
na |
51.9 |
30.5 |
19.3 |
18.9 |
| 市净率 (x) |
5.2 |
4.7 |
4.1 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) |
20.2 |
12.9 |
10.0 |
7.8 |
7.4 |
| 自由现金流收益率 (%) |
-0.5 |
4.1 |
3.0 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
| 股息收益率 (%) |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
| 股息支付率 (%) |
166 |
56 |
37 |
35 |
35 |
| ROE (%) |
3.2 |
9.5 |
14.4 |
19.1 |
16.4 |
股份数据
| 指标 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
| EPS (¥) |
9.0 |
28.6 |
48.8 |
77.0 |
78.4 |
| 核心EPS (¥) |
9.0 |
28.6 |
48.8 |
77.0 |
78.4 |
| DPS (¥) |
15.0 |
16.0 |
18.0 |
27.0 |
27.4 |
| BPS (¥) |
285.3 |
314.7 |
363.8 |
442.8 |
513.3 |
评级与目标价
- 当前股价：¥1,485.5
- 目标价：¥1,900.0（上调自 ¥1,400.0）
- 评级：Buy
财务变动
| 指标 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
| 净现金流变化 (¥M) |
34,783 |
7,762 |
-7,697 |
18,610 |
19,610 |
| 自由现金流 (¥M) |
-3,715 |
30,806 |
22,403 |
37,710 |
38,310 |
总结
CyberAgent has exceeded expectations in H1 FY9/25, with Q2 OP reaching ¥20.9bn, on par with the year-earlier level. The success of the new SD Gundam game has been a key driver, contributing to a significant boost in earnings. Citi Research has revised its forecasts for the games business and raised its target price, indicating confidence in the company's future growth. The firm also adjusted its historical earnings data due to accounting irregularities, which may affect previous performance metrics. Overall, CyberAgent is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by strong performance in the media & IP and advertising sectors, as well as the ongoing success of its new game.
