2002年-ECB欧洲央行_The_Eurosystems_dialogue_with_EU_accession_countries_13页_228kb

The Eurosystem's Dialogue with EU Accession Countries

Core Content

The Eurosystem has been actively engaged in a dialogue with EU accession countries to prepare for their integration into the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) and, eventually, the Eurosystem. This dialogue includes both policy and technical aspects and is aimed at ensuring that these countries meet the necessary conditions for joining the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and adopting the euro.

Main Purpose of the Dialogue

• Policy Dialogue: Focuses on macroeconomic developments, monetary and exchange rate strategies, financial sector structure, and central bank independence.
• Technical Dialogue: Provides support to accession countries' central banks in areas such as payment systems, legal frameworks, statistics, and information technology.
• The dialogue helps in preparing for a smooth integration and fostering economic cohesion within EMU.

Structure of the Dialogue

The Eurosystem's dialogue is structured around two main elements:

1. Policy Dialogue

• Involves high-level meetings and annual seminars with Governors and Board-level representatives from the Eurosystem and accession countries.
• The first seminar was held in Helsinki in 1999, followed by seminars in Vienna and Berlin.
• The next seminar is planned for Brussels in December 2002.
• Regular meetings between Governors and managers of central banks from individual accession countries and the ECB take place to discuss similar topics in more detail.

2. Technical Dialogue

• Includes expert seminars, workshops, training courses, internships, and technical assistance.
• The ECB has prioritised multilateral activities, while National Central Banks (NCBs) have focused on bilateral cooperation.
• The technical dialogue aims to help central banks understand the operational framework of the ESCB and prepare for integration.

Key Issues in the Dialogue

The Eurosystem has focused on several critical areas during the dialogue with accession countries:

1. Real Macroeconomic Convergence

   • Accession countries have made progress in income convergence, though it has been slow.
   • Per capita income levels in purchasing power parity (PPP) range from 26% to 88% of the euro area average.
   • Structural reforms are essential to improve economic growth and real convergence, including liberalising prices, improving corporate governance, and enhancing financial stability.

2. Inflation Developments

   • Inflation rates have declined significantly, with most countries reaching single-digit levels by 2001.
   • Average inflation in 2001 was around 9%, still higher than in the euro area.
   • The Balassa-Samuelson effect is a factor in inflation differentials, but it accounts for only a limited share.
   • Inflation expectations and anchoring are crucial for nominal convergence.

3. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Strategies

   • Accession countries follow a variety of exchange rate strategies, from currency boards to free floats.
   • Most countries have adopted external anchors, such as the euro, to anchor inflation expectations.
   • The exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) is a future goal, and the Eurosystem discusses the compatibility of current regimes with ERM II.
   • Countries like Lithuania have re-pegged their currency boards to the euro in recent years.

Summary of Key Data

• Accession Countries: Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
• EU Accession Timeline: Negotiations were expected to be completed by the end of 2002, with possible entry in 2004.
• Maastricht Criteria: Countries must achieve sustainable convergence to adopt the euro.
• Technical Cooperation: Includes multilateral and bilateral activities, such as seminars, training, and twinning programs.
• Economic Integration: Accession countries have improved trade and financial linkages with the euro area, reducing the impact of external crises.

Remaining Challenges

• Income Convergence: Progress varies significantly across countries, with some lagging behind.
• Structural Reforms: Needed in financial institutions and labor markets to improve investment climate and financial stability.
• Inflation Control: Continued efforts are required to bring inflation closer to euro area levels.
• Fiscal Discipline: Concerns over fiscal slippages in some countries could undermine stabilisation efforts.

Conclusion

The Eurosystem's dialogue with EU accession countries is a critical component of the process of preparing these nations for integration into EMU and the adoption of the euro. While progress has been made in macroeconomic convergence and inflation control, further structural reforms and policy coordination are necessary to ensure smooth integration and economic stability. The dialogue also supports institutional development and technical capacity-building, which are essential for long-term economic cohesion within the EU.