ILO-世界就业和社会展望：2018趋势（英文版）-82页-2mb

Summary of World Employment Social Outlook: Trends 2018

Core Content

The World Employment Social Outlook: Trends 2018 provides a comprehensive analysis of global employment and social trends, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the context of slow economic growth, structural transformation, and demographic shifts.

Main Views

1. Global Economic and Employment Trends

• Global economic growth rebounded to 3.6% in 2017, up from 3.2% in 2016, but is expected to remain low and stable in the future, with a projected 3.7% growth rate for 2018 and beyond.
• Global unemployment is expected to decline slightly to 5.5% in 2018 (from 5.6% in 2017), but the total number of unemployed will remain above 192 million, due to the increasing labor force.
• The global unemployment rate is expected to stay essentially unchanged in 2019, while the number of unemployed will increase by 1.3 million.
• Vulnerable employment (own-account workers and contributing family workers) is rising, with over 42% of global workers in such conditions in 2017. This proportion is particularly high in developing and emerging countries, at over 76% and 46%, respectively.
• The pace of working poverty reduction is slowing, with over 300 million workers in emerging and developing countries living in extreme working poverty (less than $1.90/day).
• Moderate working poverty remains widespread, affecting 430 million workers in emerging and developing countries in 2017.

2. Regional Employment Trends

• Developed countries are entering their sixth consecutive year of declining unemployment, expected to fall to 5.5% in 2018, the lowest since 2007.
• However, labour underutilization and involuntary part-time employment remain high.
• Emerging countries experienced a significant rise in unemployment between 2014 and 2017 due to economic downturns and commodity price slumps, but the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.5% in 2018.
• Developing countries are expected to see an increase of 500,000 unemployed per year in both 2018 and 2019, with the unemployment rate remaining at around 5.3%.

3. Structural Transformation and Job Quality

• Service sector employment is increasing across all income groups, while agricultural employment is declining.
• Manufacturing employment is expected to decline in developed and upper middle-income countries, and grow only marginally in lower middle-income countries.
• This trend, known as "premature deindustrialization", may limit the positive impact of structural transformation on reducing informal and vulnerable employment, as many workers move to services with poorer working conditions.
• Part-time employment and time-related underemployment are expected to rise in developed countries due to the expansion of service sector jobs.
• SMEs are a major contributor to vulnerable and informal employment, especially in developing countries, where the gender gap in working poverty is significant.

4. Population Ageing and Labour Market Challenges

• Global population growth is slowing due to rising life expectancy and declining birth rates, with labour force growth unlikely to offset the increase in retirees.
• In developed countries, the old-age economic dependency ratio is expected to increase to nearly 50% by 2030, up from 3.5 in 2017.
• The average age of the global labor force is projected to rise from 40 in 2017 to 41 in 2030, with particularly rapid growth in Europe and China.
• Population ageing poses challenges to labor market inclusiveness, as older workers may struggle to adapt to new technologies and job requirements.
• Old-age poverty is closely linked to existing labor market inequalities, as workers with lower incomes and poor working conditions are less likely to have retirement savings.
• Lifelong learning and targeted training programs are essential to enhance the employability of older workers and reduce early retirement and labor market detachment.

Key Information

• Global unemployment is expected to remain elevated with over 192 million unemployed in 2018.
• Vulnerable employment is expected to increase by 17 million per year.
• Working poverty is a major issue, especially in emerging and developing countries, with over 300 million workers in extreme working poverty.
• Structural shifts are increasing service sector employment, which may harm job quality due to higher prevalence of part-time and informal work.
• Population ageing will intensify labor market pressures, particularly in developed countries, where retirement dependency is expected to rise sharply.
• Youth unemployment is a major challenge, with a global youth unemployment rate of 13%, three times the adult rate of 4.3%.
• Gender disparities in labor market participation and employment quality are widespread, with women more likely to be in vulnerable employment.

Conclusion

The report underscores the complex challenges facing the global labor market, including slow economic growth, rising vulnerable employment, persistent working poverty, and demographic shifts. It emphasizes the need for inclusive and employment-intensive growth, as well as strong policy interventions to improve job quality, promote formalization, and support older and younger workers in adapting to changing labor market conditions.