2013-02-27-奥纬咨询-Managing_in_an_Age_of_Earnings_Uncertainty_37页_2mb

2013 AFP Risk Survey Summary

Core Content

The 2013 AFP Risk Survey, sponsored by Oliver Wyman, highlights the growing challenges of earnings uncertainty and the evolving role of risk management in corporate strategy. Financial professionals are increasingly aware of the complexity and unpredictability of risks that extend beyond traditional treasury and finance domains, such as customer satisfaction, regulatory, and geopolitical risks. The report underscores the importance of integrating risk management into strategic decision-making to maintain competitive advantage in an uncertain environment.

Main Points

Increased Earnings Uncertainty

• 59% of financial professionals report greater earnings uncertainty today compared to five years ago.
• 28% believe the uncertainty has not changed.
• Publicly traded companies are more exposed to earnings uncertainty than private ones, with over two-thirds of respondents from these companies noting this.
• Macroeconomic factors (30%) are cited as the most influential driver of increased earnings uncertainty, followed by financial factors (23%), regulatory risk (37%), GDP growth (35%), and political risk (28%).

Forecasting Challenges

• 53% of respondents find it more difficult to forecast risk today than five years ago.
• 52% expect this trend to continue, indicating that difficult forecasting conditions are becoming the new norm.
• Credit risk is considered the easiest to forecast, while natural catastrophe and regulatory risk are the most difficult.
• 47% of respondents believe their organizations need to improve forecasting capabilities.
• Only 10% rate their forecasting capabilities as "weak to non-existent."

Key Forecasting Challenges

• Data capture is a major issue, with 52% of respondents identifying it as an impediment.
• Integration of risk and forecasting data into strategic decisions is also a challenge for 47%.
• Capturing external data is cited as a challenge by 44%.
• Forecasting skills are seen as a challenge by 36%.
• Resources and executive support are less frequently cited as challenges, with 22% to 31% of respondents reporting these as issues.

Risk Forecasting Time Horizons

• One year is the most common time frame for forecasting risk.
• Some organizations forecast quarterly for liquidity and FX risks, while others extend the forecast to three years or more.
• 48% of organizations do not forecast natural catastrophe risk.
• 25% do not forecast customer satisfaction/retention.

Responses to Business Risks

• 57% of organizations are increasing IT investments to improve risk management.
• 53% are raising revenue growth targets.
• 52% are focusing on risk awareness and culture.
• 51% are expanding into new markets.
• 49% are launching new product lines.
• 39% are increasing capital expenditures.
• 43% are considering mergers and acquisitions.
• 29% are expanding their workforce, while one-third are reducing staff.

Changes in Risk Management Activities

• 63% of organizations are increasing executive review of strategy and assumptions.
• 46% are conducting more specific risk analysis.
• 44% are enhancing risk reporting to management.
• Less than 25% have increased risk mitigation through hedging or insurance.

Risk Management Structure

• 28% of organizations use a fully centralized risk management model.
• 35% of large and private companies maintain a centralized structure.
• 12% use a fully decentralized or "siloed" approach.
• 60% use a federated model, combining centralized processes with decentralized execution.
• 68% of large and publicly traded companies adopt this federated structure.
• CFO is the most common individual responsible for risk management, cited by 38% of respondents.
• Treasurer is cited by 11%, while Chief Risk Officer is responsible for 9%.
• CEO is more commonly the primary risk contact at smaller companies (36%) than at larger ones (19%).

Key Risks and Their Impact

Conclusion

The 2013 AFP Risk Survey highlights a shift in the risk landscape, with an increasing focus on external, non-traditional risks and a growing need for improved forecasting and analytical capabilities. While companies are taking steps to manage these risks, many are still struggling with the integration of data, the complexity of risk factors, and the alignment of risk management with strategic goals. The report calls for a more proactive and integrated approach to risk management, emphasizing the importance of a federated structure, enhanced risk culture, and the role of senior leadership in addressing these challenges.