世界银行-津巴布韦2025年经济更新_繁文缛节-为私营部门增长营造有利的商业监管环境（英）-2025_69页_7mb

Zimbabwe Economic Update 2025 Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of Zimbabwe's economic developments and outlines policy recommendations to foster a business-enabling regulatory environment for private sector growth. It highlights the country's economic recovery, macroeconomic stability, and ongoing challenges, with a focus on reducing regulatory burdens to enhance competitiveness and formalization.

Main Points

1. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook

• Growth Outlook: Zimbabwe's economy is projected to grow by 6.6% in 2025, driven by recovery in agriculture, increased mining investments (gold, lithium), and iron and steel manufacturing.
• GDP Rebasement: The new GDP estimates for 2024 suggest a higher aggregate GDP of US$45.7 billion compared to the original estimate of US$35 billion.
• Fiscal Position: The fiscal deficit is expected to be 0.3% of GDP in 2025, with improved total expenditure and revenue at 15.5% and 15.2% of GDP, respectively.
• Public Debt: Public debt remains high at US$23.7 billion, but the public debt-to-GDP ratio has declined from 72.9% in 2024 to 49.5% in 2025 due to GDP rebasing and exchange rate stability.
• Inflation and Exchange Rate: Inflation has remained in single digits since January 2025, and the ZiG-USD official exchange rate has stabilized. However, the parallel premium remains elevated at around 20%.
• Trade Deficit: The trade deficit narrowed in 2025 due to increased agricultural and mineral exports and reduced food imports, supported by lower global prices.
• Foreign Exchange Reserves: Reserves are still below the three-month import cover benchmark, covering only 1.1 months of imports in 2025.
• Poverty: Extreme poverty peaked at 49% in 2020 but is projected to decline to 45.8% in 2025 due to improved agricultural output. Structural challenges like reliance on rain-fed agriculture and inadequate social protection continue to hinder poverty reduction.

2. Business-Enabling Regulatory Environment

• Regulatory Burdens: Zimbabwean firms face significant regulatory challenges, with over 25 agencies imposing multiple permits, fees, and licenses. The number of statutory instruments (SIs) has more than doubled since 2016.
• Compliance Costs: Compliance costs are disproportionately high for SMEs, with some facing up to 464% of annual revenue in compliance expenses. These costs reinforce informality and hinder business entry and growth.
• Informality: 70% of informal firms cite long registration times and high costs as barriers to formalization, significantly higher than in other Sub-Saharan African countries.
• Policy Reforms: The government is re-prioritizing efforts to improve the ease of doing business, especially as the macroeconomic environment stabilizes.
• Private Sector Role: A more business-friendly regulatory environment is critical for stimulating investment, promoting private sector-led growth, and enhancing competitiveness.

Key Information

• Exchange Rate Stability: The ZiG has stabilized due to tight monetary policy and exchange rate management. However, the parallel market premium remains high.
• Fiscal Challenges: Despite a small fiscal deficit, Zimbabwe continues to face financing gaps and unsustainable debt levels, particularly due to limited fiscal capacity and reliance on RBZ borrowing.
• Social Protection: The Zimbabwe Social Registry (ZISO) is being expanded to improve targeting of social protection programs and subsidies for vulnerable households.
• IMF Staff Monitored Program (SMP): The government has requested an SMP, and its implementation is crucial for restoring confidence with creditors and setting the stage for multilateral debt restructuring.
• Sectoral Analysis: Key sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism face high regulatory burdens, often requiring interactions with multiple government ministries and agencies.
• Recommendations: The report emphasizes the need for regulatory streamlining, improved transparency, and coordination to reduce compliance costs, enhance formalization, and support private sector dynamism.

Policy Recommendations

• Implement IMF Staff Monitored Program (SMP): Build a credible policy track record to restore creditor confidence and enable multilateral debt restructuring.
• Stabilize Exchange Rate: Enhance transparency in the WBWS mechanism and reduce the parallel market premium through expanded access, lower bank fees, and restructured IMTT.
• End Quasi-Fiscal Operations: Redirect external debt servicing to tax revenue instead of RBZ borrowing.
• Improve Revenue Collection and Expenditure Management: Expand e-procurement, rationalize managerial positions, and strengthen tax systems, particularly in mining and property taxation.
• Enhance Social Protection: Scale up the ZISO to improve targeting of social protection programs and reduce the impact of economic reforms on vulnerable groups.
• Streamline Regulations: Reduce the number of statutory instruments and simplify compliance requirements to lower costs and promote formalization.
• Strengthen Institutional Capacity: Improve coordination and transparency among regulatory agencies to reduce bureaucratic friction and support sustainable economic growth.

Conclusion

Zimbabwe is on a path of economic recovery, with strong GDP growth and macroeconomic stability. However, the country must address persistent regulatory challenges and structural constraints to unlock private sector potential and ensure sustainable development. The implementation of the SMP, regulatory reform, and enhanced social protection mechanisms are essential to support this transition and maintain progress toward long-term economic resilience.