2019年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ukraine_Technical_Assistance_Report_13页_875kb

Summary of the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) Capacity Development Mission in Ukraine

Core Content

This Technical Assistance (TA) report outlines the findings and recommendations from a mission conducted from June 18–22, 2018, aimed at improving the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for Ukraine. The mission was organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and supported by the SECO2 RPPI project funded by the Swiss government. The goal is to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the RPPI to support financial stability and macroprudential policy analysis, as well as monetary policy and inflation targeting.

Main Views and Key Information

• Importance of RPPI: The RPPI is essential for policy analysis, particularly in identifying financial procyclicality and asset bubbles, and informing monetary policy decisions.
• Current Methodology: The existing RPPI is based on a stratification method that includes 300 strata, which has led to many empty or unreliable strata due to insufficient data.
• Hedonic Methods: Hedonic methods are recommended as a more sophisticated approach for generating reliable RPPIs. They are expected to replace the current stratification method by 2020.
• Data Sources: The current survey-based approach has low response rates and limited data quality. There is a need to improve data sources, including administrative data and online listings.
• Stratification Improvements: The lowest level of stratification (construction material) will be removed, reducing the number of strata to 150. A standardized imputation process will also be introduced to handle missing data.
• Outlier Management: A two-fold strategy is recommended to manage outliers, including manual removal by experts and automated checks by software.
• Weighting Issues: The weights for the RPPI are currently based on a combination of administrative and survey data. Improvements are needed to ensure consistent and accurate weights, especially for the secondary market.

Priority Recommendations

The mission outlined several priority recommendations for improving the RPPI system:

Short-Term Actions

1. Training Staff (Target Date: September 2018)

   • Ensure staff are trained in RPPI compilation methods according to international standards.
   • Responsible Institution: State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU).

2. Secure Access to Online Databases (Target Date: February 2019)

   • Access online real estate listings to validate existing indices and enable alternative RPPIs.
   • Responsible Institution: SSSU.

3. Improve Weights (Target Date: March 2019)

   • Refine the estimation of relative weights, particularly for the secondary market.
   • Responsible Institution: SSSU.

Medium-Term Actions

4. Transition to Hedonic Methods

   • The SSSU is committed to moving from the current stratification method to a hedonic regression method by 2020.
   • Intensive training on hedonic methods was provided during the mission.

5. Revise Stratification Design

   • Remove construction material as a stratification dimension, reducing strata from 300 to 150.
   • Implement a standardized imputation process for strata with no returns.

6. Use Arithmetic Mean

   • Transition from geometric mean to arithmetic mean as the central tendency measure for the RPPI at the lowest level of stratification.

7. Improve Survey Methodology

   • Overhaul the survey questionnaire to make it more efficient and suitable for hedonic analysis.
   • Consider making the survey legally mandatory to improve response rates.

8. Leverage Online Listings

   • Explore the use of online real estate platforms like olx.ua for data collection.
   • Consider establishing a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the platform or using web-scraping techniques to gather data internally.

Key Recommendations

• Stakeholder Engagement: A seminar on the importance of accurate RPPIs and the need for comprehensive administrative data is planned for mid-2019, in coordination with the IMF.
• Data Quality: Address inconsistencies in administrative data, such as the use of assessed values instead of market prices, by engaging with relevant ministries like the Ministry of Justice and Ministry of Finance.
• Index Validation: Use online listings data to validate trends observed in survey data once the SSSU is familiar with hedonic methods.

Conclusion

The mission emphasizes the need for a transition to more reliable and comprehensive data sources, primarily through the adoption of hedonic methods and the improvement of administrative data quality. Short-term actions include staff training, survey improvements, and data validation through online listings, while long-term goals focus on the full transition to hedonic methods and the establishment of a robust RPPI system that supports effective policy-making in Ukraine.