20151020-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_O_il___Gas_11页_786kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Market Summary

Core Content

Oil Price Movements (19 October 2015):
Both Brent and WTI crude oil prices fell on the day, with Brent declining by 3.7% to USD48.61/b and WTI by 2.9% to USD45.89/b. This decline was attributed to concerns over Chinese demand and weak Saudi exports.
Chinese Economic Data:
China's GDP growth for January-September 2015 was 6.9%, the lowest since 2009, indicating a slowdown in economic activity. Despite this, oil demand remained relatively stable.
Iran's Oil Export Plans:
Iran aims to double its crude oil sales to Japan once sanctions are lifted, with current imports averaging around 168,777 b/d in 2014. The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has reached a general agreement with Japan, though the latter is waiting for full sanctions removal.
Malaysia's Currency and Budget Concerns:
The Malaysian ringgit fell as the government faces oil-revenue pressures, with the 2016 budget described as "one of the most difficult." The drop in Brent crude has significantly impacted the country's fiscal health.
China's Refinery Activity:
China's crude oil processing dropped in September due to seasonal maintenance shutdowns and a slowing economy, with daily processing falling to 10.16 million barrels, the second-lowest in 11 months.

Key Companies and Reports

Yinson Holdings

Secured a second extension for the FPSO Adoon with a 3-year tenure and USD129m value.
Reiterated a BUY rating with a target price of MYR4.35.
Likely to issue a special dividend after selling non-O&G assets.

UMW Oil & Gas

Naga 8 secured a charter at sub-USD100k DCR, but 75% of rigs are idle.
Raised net loss forecasts for 2015-2017 due to low utilisation.
Reiterated SELL with an unchanged target price of MYR0.80.

Icon Offshore

Terminated a vessel order with Danish Yachts, receiving MYR13.7m in reimbursement.
May consider terminating other OSV orders if market conditions remain weak.
Maintained SELL rating with a target price of MYR0.25.

Perisai Petroleum

Proposed a 10% private placement to raise about MYR40m for debt repayment.
A prudent move as cash reserves are crucial in the downturn.
Maintained SELL rating with a target price of MYR0.22.

Market Valuations and Indices

Company/Region	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price 19-Oct	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD b)	90D T/O (USD m)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Sell	6.49	4.80	244.3	84.7	28.5	49.7	6.9	7.7	2.8	0.8	1.6
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Buy	5.81	6.00	96.5	67.6	14.1	15.3	5.9	6.2	6.5	0.9	3.5
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	9.29	11.70	53.5	91.1	17.1	20.2	4.3	4.5	5.1	0.9	0.8
New Ocean Energy	342 HK	Buy	3.53	7.70	0.7	0.9	5.0	4.0	7.8	7.0	19.0	0.9	2.0
INPEX	1605 JT	NR	1,188	NR	14.5	59.1	20.0	28.3	3.1	4.0	3.2	0.6	1.5
JAPEX	1662 JT	NR	3,665	NR	1.8	8.3	6.0	17.1	5.2	9.1	7.7	0.5	1.4
JX Holding	5020 JT	NR	481	NR	10.0	51.7	N/A	8.9	-256.7	10.6	-15.1	0.6	3.4
Showa Shell	5002 JT	NR	1,054	NR	3.3	15.3	22.6	12.4	8.8	6.7	6.2	1.4	3.6
TonenGeneral	5012 JT	NR	1,240	NR	5.9	21.9	25.0	13.2	18.6	12.1	4.5	1.7	3.1
Idemitsu	5019 JT	NR	1,999	NR	2.7	13.8	N/A	8.9	-33.0	8.5	-15.9	0.5	2.5
Cosmo	5007 JT	NR	164	NR	1.2	N/A	N/A	5.9	-177.8	10.3	-36.6	0.8	0.0
Gas Malaysia	GMB MK	Buy	2.45	2.65	0.7	0.1	25.5	25.4	14.3	13.8	12.2	3.1	3.9
Petronas Gas	PTG MK	Hold	22.80	24.00	10.7	7.9	24.9	24.7	15.0	14.6	16.7	4.1	2.8
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	7.42	11.25	1.5	0.5	17.0	10.0	8.7	7.0	5.4	0.7	2.1
Phoenix Petro	PNX PM	Buy	3.55	4.75	0.1	0.0	6.0	5.3	7.8	7.0	11.6	0.7	2.8
S-Oil	010950 KS	NR	69,800	NR	6.9	20.5	10.0	9.7	5.3	4.8	7.2	1.4	5.5
SK Innovation	096770 KS	NR	113,000	NR	9.2	36.6	N/A	8.9	6.7	7.1	7.8	0.7	2.6
GS Holdings	078930 KS	NR	49,050	NR	4.0	8.9	9.1	8.4	8.3	8.2	7.9	0.7	2.6
Formosa Petrochemical	6505 TT	NR	81.60	NR	24.0	7.2	20.0	21.5	12.7	13.4	14.9	2.9	3.8
Bangchak Petroleum	BCP TB	Buy	36.75	41.00	1.4	3.0	8.9	8.5	5.4	5.9	15.5	0.9	4.0
IRPC PCL	IRPC TB	Hold	4.18	3.74	2.4	10.4	11.5	9.8	6.6	6.4	13.6	1.1	3.8
PetroleoBrasilheiro	PETR3 BZ	NR	9.67	NR	29.9	49.2	9.9	8.5	5.4	4.9	4.0	0.5	5.4
Total	FP FP	NR	44.97	NR	123.0	353.8	12.7	13.2	6.2	5.9	9.7	1.2	5.3
EniS.p.A.	ENI IM	NR	15.59	NR	64.2	362.0	33.3	22.7	4.9	4.2	2.8	0.9	5.2
Repsol S.A.	REP SM	NR	11.43	NR	18.1	223.4	10.0	12.4	6.6	5.8	5.5	0.5	8.7
Stateoil ASA	STLN NO	NR	140.70	NR	55.2	78.0	19.6	16.7	2.9	2.9	2.2	1.3	5.1
OMV AG	OMV AV	NR	24.74	NR	9.2	12.6	9.9	12.6	5.2	4.9	6.1	0.6	4.5
Galp Energia	GALP PL	NR	9.72	NR	9.1	16.4	15.8	18.6	7.6	7.1	8.6	1.5	4.0

Analyst Contacts

Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648 | howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 226623 2632 | jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137 | pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 2297 8688 | tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840 | micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6231 5842 | yeakcheekeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 × 1400 | sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888 × 8082 | chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 444555888 × 8087 | binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn

Notes

The table includes both oil & gas and oil-service companies.
The data is sourced from Bloomberg and Maybank KE.
Forward-looking estimates and multiples for companies not under Maybank Kim Eng's coverage are from Bloomberg consensus.
Average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.

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