2010年-世界发展银行全球_Assessment_of_the_Impact_of_the_Crisis_on_New_PPI_Projects___Update_Five_14页_1mb

Summary of PPI Data Update Note 35 – February 2010

Core Content

This document provides an update on the impact of the global financial crisis on new private infrastructure projects (PPI projects) in developing countries, focusing on investment trends, project closures, financing challenges, and regional and income group variations.

Main Viewpoints

• Recovery in Investment:
  Investment commitments to PPI projects in developing countries showed a strong recovery in 2009, with a 22% increase in the third quarter and a 10% increase in the first three quarters compared to the same periods in 2008. This indicates a rebound from a 54% decline in the second half of 2008. However, the recovery was selective, concentrated in large energy projects in Brazil, India, and Turkey, which accounted for 78% of the investment and all the growth in the third quarter. Russia experienced a sharp decline due to the financial crisis and the end of its privatization program.

• Project Selectivity and Financing Conditions:
  The number of projects reaching closure declined by 27% in Q3 2009 and 10% in the first three quarters compared to 2008. This suggests greater selectivity in project closures. Projects that succeeded were typically backed by financially strong sponsors and governments and had strong economic fundamentals.
  Financing conditions worsened significantly, with higher costs, lower debt/equity ratios, shorter tenors, and more conservative structures. The "flight to quality" trend continued, with commercial banks withdrawing from the project finance market, and syndicated loans remaining stalled.
  Local public banks and multilateral/bilateral agencies became key financiers, providing critical funding. However, they are unlikely to fully replace commercial banks.

• Sectoral Impact:

  • Energy was the only sector showing investment growth in 2009, with 22 projects in Q3 and 91 projects in the first three quarters, totaling US$45.2 billion, a 37% increase compared to 2008.
  • Telecoms saw a 39% increase in Q3 but a 20% decline in the first three quarters.
  • Water and sewerage had the lowest activity, with 19 projects totaling US$1.6 billion in the first three quarters, a 12% decline compared to 2008.
  • Transport was the most affected sector, with 35 projects totaling US$13.7 billion in the first three quarters, a 27% decline compared to 2008, and the highest share of delayed or canceled projects (28%).

• Regional Trends:

  • South Asia had the strongest recovery, with 41 projects totaling US$26.2 billion in the first three quarters, a 72% increase compared to 2008.
  • Latin America and East Asia and Pacific also showed moderate growth, though concentrated in a few large projects.
  • Europe and Central Asia experienced the most significant decline, with 42 projects totaling US$12.3 billion in the first three quarters, a 45% drop compared to 2008.
  • Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa had minimal activity, with no closures in Q3 for MENA and a 34% decline in SSA.

• Project Delays and Cancellations:
  A significant portion of projects faced delays or cancellations due to the crisis. By the end of Q3 2009, 15% of reviewed projects were affected by the crisis, with 9% delayed, 5% at risk of delay, and 1% canceled.
  Delays unrelated to the crisis were also observed, particularly in land acquisition and government approvals.
  Transport projects had the highest share of delays and cancellations (28% of investment), and concessions and divestitures declined, while greenfield projects showed resilience with 36% higher investment in Q3 2009.

Key Information

• Total investment in PPI projects in Q3 2009: US$14.1 billion, up 22% from Q3 2008.
• Total investment in first three quarters of 2009: US$65.7 billion, up 10% from the same period in 2008.
• Major sponsors of projects reaching closure in Q3 2009 included Adani Group, Aboitiz Power, CEZ Group, EBX Group, and Reliance.
• Greenfield projects (e.g., power plants) were more resilient, with US$10 billion in Q3 2009, a 36% increase from 2008.
• Financing challenges remained severe, with increased costs and more stringent conditions, leading to project restructurings in Europe and Central Asia and Latin America.
• Government commitment to PPP programs remained strong despite the crisis, as evidenced by the number of projects being tendered and awarded.
• Local capital markets became an important new source of funding, especially in India, Mexico, and Brazil.
• Implementation issues unrelated to the crisis, such as land acquisition delays, became more significant over time.
• Investment in low-income countries declined by 19% in Q3 2009 and 24% in the first three quarters compared to 2008.
• Overall, the financial crisis slowed project closures, but its impact on implementation was declining, with other challenges becoming more prominent.