20150929-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_O_il___Gas_11页_746kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
Oil & Gas Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil fell 2.6% to USD47.34/bbl.
- WTI Crude Oil decreased 2.8% to USD44.43/bbl.
- Dubai Fateh Spot dropped 1.8% to USD43.98/bbl.
- China Daqing Spot remained unchanged at USD38.60/bbl.
- NYMEX Henry Hub increased 1.5% to USD2.67/MMBtu.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR decreased 0.6% to USD6.83/MMBtu.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot fell 0.4% to USD59.83/bbl.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot showed no change at USD59.52/bbl.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot increased 0.0% to USD238.13/mt.
- Gold dropped 1.2% to USD1,131.95/Oz.
- USD-CNY fell 0.1% to 6.37.
- DJI declined 1.9% to 16,001.89.
- S&P 500 fell 2.6% to 1,881.77.
News Highlights
- PETRONAS plans to cut capex for 2015 by MYR16 billion, reducing it to MYR54 billion due to lower oil prices.
- Oil prices fell nearly 3% on Wall Street and China, influenced by weak equity markets and Chinese economic data, but limited losses due to a drawdown at Cushing.
- Indonesia aims to rejoin OPEC in December to reduce reliance on oil traders and become a net crude oil importer.
- Indian oil refiners paid $700 million to Iran on Sept. 30, following previous payments since 2013.
- Shell has halted exploration in Alaska and faces a $4.1 billion writedown after the Burger J wildcat failure.
Key Reports
China Oil & Gas
- VW scandal ≠ Short refiners | OVERWEIGHT
- The emissions-test scandal has minimal impact on refiners' profitability.
- Global diesel demand is driven by the commercial sector.
- Cost advantage is the key factor in fuel choice, unless environmental concerns are a priority.
- No imminent investment catalyst, but sector has limited downside.
Yinson Holdings
- Growing in a down cycle | BUY
- Building a war chest and targeting new FPSO projects.
- Special dividends are expected from non-O&G divestment.
- Resilient business model with defensive qualities.
- Reiterate BUY with a MYR4.35 target price.
SapuraKencana Petroleum
- 1HFY16 above; prospects still weak | HOLD
- 1HFY16 core earnings positively surprised.
- Long-term prospects are challenging, with a potential 2nd impairment in 4QFY16.
- Expect weaker performance in FY17 compared to FY16.
- No headline catalysts expected.
Petronas Chemicals
- ASP declined but insulated by MYR weakness | HOLD
- ASP peaked in mid-July and is experiencing a pullback.
- Weakening MYR against USD provides a revenue and profit boost in 3Q15.
- Continue to HOLD for mid 3% dividend yields.
Asian Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (25-Sep) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | 2015E PER | 2016E PER | 2015E EV/EBITDA | 2016E EV/EBITDA | ROE % | P/BV | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 5.55 | 4.80 | 229.4 | 98.5 | 24.3 | 42.6 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Buy | 4.83 | 6.00 | 88.4 | 77.0 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 8.06 | 11.70 | 46.4 | 88.7 | 14.8 | 17.5 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| New Ocean Energy | 342 HK | Buy | 3.22 | 7.70 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 225.1 | NR | 29.0 | 17.8 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 13.3 | 1.0 | 4.4 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 834.3 | NR | 40.7 | 54.7 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 147.6 | 198.00 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 11.7 | 0.4 | 6.2 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 883.5 | NR | 9.6 | 25.2 | 20.3 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 15.2 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 777.0 | NR | 4.0 | 25.5 | 19.9 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 7.05 | 11.25 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 16.1 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 3.34 | 4.75 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 11.6 | 0.6 | 3.0 |
| S-Oil | 010950 KS | NR | 61,600 | NR | 5.8 | 18.4 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 16.3 | 0.3 | 3.3 |
| SK Innovation | 096770 KS | NR | 96,000 | NR | 7.4 | 35.7 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 0.6 | 2.9 |
| GS Holdings | 078930 KS | NR | 44,950 | NR | 3.5 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 0.7 | 2.8 |
| Formosa Petrochemical | 6505 TT | NR | 75.70 | NR | 21.8 | 7.2 | 19.4 | 20.2 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 14.4 | 2.7 | 3.6 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | Hold | 21.86 | 24.00 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 23.9 | 23.7 | 14.3 | 14.0 | 16.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 |
| PTT Global Chemical | PTTGC TB | Buy | 54.8 | 87.00 | 6.8 | 22.5 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 11.3 | 1.0 | 5.1 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 52.3 | 65.00 | 2.9 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 13.3 | 1.2 | 4.8 |
Asian Oil-Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (25-Sep) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | 2015E PER | 2016E PER | 2015E EV/EBITDA | 2016E EV/EBITDA | ROE % | P/BV | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSL | 2883 HK | NR | 8.10 | NR | 9.4 | 17.3 | 12.8 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| Anton Oil | 3337 HK | NR | 1.03 | NR | 0.3 | 0.8 | N/A | N/A | 94.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 0.68 | NR | 0.1 | 0.5 | N/A | N/A | 62.1 | -10.0 | 5.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Hilong | 1623 HK | NR | 1.55 | NR | 0.3 | 0.6 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| Honghua | 196 HK | NR | 0.61 | NR | 0.3 | 0.5 | N/A | N/A | 33.4 | 12.4 | -2.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 0.91 | 1.20 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 26.6 | 23.8 | 27.3 | 28.5 | 15.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.48 | 1.00 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | Buy | 2.90 | 4.35 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 21.0 | 18.6 | 15.1 | 14.9 | 13.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
Analyst Contacts
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648 | howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 2266232632 | jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137 | pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 22978688 | tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840 | micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6231 5842 | yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400 | sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888×8082 | chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 444555888 x 8087 | binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
