世界银行-撒哈拉以南非洲宏观贫困展望：发展中国家的国别分析和预测，2023年年会（英）-100页_6mb

Macro Poverty Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides a country-by-country analysis and projections for macro poverty in the developing world, focusing on Angola, Benin, and Botswana. It outlines economic performance, poverty trends, key challenges, and future outlooks based on current data and policy scenarios.

Angola

Key Indicators (2022)

• Population: 35.0 million
• GDP: $121.9 billion
• GDP per capita: $3,481.2
• International poverty rate ($2.15): 31.1%
• Lower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65): 52.9%
• Upper middle-income poverty rate ($6.85): 78.0%
• Gini index: 51.3
• School enrollment, primary: 85.0%
• Life expectancy at birth: 61.6 years
• Total GHG emissions: 111.0 mtCO2e

Economic Performance

• Growth in 2023: 1.3% (0.3% in Q1)
• Oil production: Declined by 8.0% in Q1, but recovering
• Inflation: Increased from 10.6% in April to 12.1% in July
• Private consumption: Expected to grow at 1.0% in 2023
• Poverty: Marginal increase to 32.8% in 2023, with 11.8 million people in poverty

Key Conditions and Challenges

• Over-reliance on oil: Accounts for 26% of GDP, 62% of tax revenues, and 95% of exports
• Informal employment: 80% of workers are informal, with 88% of women in informal jobs
• Macroeconomic stability: Improved through flexible exchange rate, central bank autonomy, and fiscal consolidation
• Economic diversification: A major challenge due to limited human and physical capital
• Social protection: A cash transfer program (Kwenda) with 750,000 rural beneficiaries, but needs urban coverage and adaptability

Recent Developments

• GDP growth: Moderated to 5.8% in 2023
• Inflation: Fell to 3.9% in July 2023
• Current account deficit: Declined to 5.9% of GDP in 2023
• Fiscal deficit: Reduced to 4.3% of GDP in 2023
• Poverty reduction: Expected to slow, with the international poverty rate at 15.6% in 2023

Outlook

• Growth: Expected to return to 3% in the medium term
• Inflation: Projected to decline to 7% by 2024
• Poverty: Expected to fall to 32.1% in 2025
• Fiscal space: Needs to be rebuilt through revenue-based consolidation and efficient spending
• Debt: Remains at moderate risk of distress, with public debt expected to decline to 52.4% of GDP by 2025

Benin

Key Indicators (2022)

• Population: 13.4 million
• GDP: $17.5 billion
• GDP per capita: $1,310.1
• International poverty rate ($2.15): 20.1%
• Lower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65): 53.2%
• Upper middle-income poverty rate ($6.85): 83.6%
• Gini index: 37.9
• School enrollment, primary: 116.7%
• Life expectancy at birth: 59.8 years
• Total GHG emissions: 28.5 mtCO2e

Economic Performance

• Growth in 2023: 5.8% (2.9% per capita)
• Agriculture growth: 5.1%
• Industry growth: 8.2%
• Services growth: 5.0%
• Inflation: 3.5% in 2023H1, projected to reach 2% in 2024
• Current account balance: -5.9% of GDP in 2023
• Poverty: Expected to fall from 15.6% in 2023 to 12.8% in 2025

Key Conditions and Challenges

• Fiscal space: Reduced due to overlapping crises and increased debt
• Security risks: Increased in the North, affecting economic activities
• Climate shocks: Recurrent, impacting agriculture and food security
• Regional tensions: Affecting reexport activities and import prices

Recent Developments

• Fiscal deficit: Reduced to 4.3% of GDP in 2023
• Public debt: Expected to decline to 53.8% of GDP in 2023
• Inflation: Moderated due to good harvest and inflation control measures
• Social protection: Needs to be expanded to include urban areas and adaptable income support

Outlook

• Growth: Expected to hover around 6% in the medium term
• Inflation: Projected to reach the WAEMU target of 2% in 2024
• Poverty reduction: Expected to continue, with the international poverty rate declining to 12.8% in 2025
• Fiscal consolidation: Needs to be accelerated to avoid debt sustainability risks
• Security and climate: Continued instability and shocks could delay progress

Botswana

Key Indicators (2022)

• Population: 2.6 million
• GDP: $20.3 billion
• GDP per capita: $7,718.2
• International poverty rate ($2.15): 15.4%
• Lower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65): 38.0%
• Upper middle-income poverty rate ($6.85): 63.5%
• Gini index: 53.3
• School enrollment, primary: 99.0%
• Life expectancy at birth: 61.1 years
• Total GHG emissions: 52.1 mtCO2e

Economic Performance

• Growth in 2023: 3.8% (slowed from 5.8% in 2022)
• Diamond production: Declined due to weaker global demand
• Inflation: 7.8% in 2023H1, falling into the Central Bank's target range
• Poverty: Expected to remain at 14.3% under the IPL, with negligible changes in the medium term
• Fiscal deficit: 2.8% of GDP in 2023

Key Conditions and Challenges

• Over-reliance on diamonds: Accounts for a large share of exports and GDP
• High unemployment: 25.4%, mainly affecting youth
• Public sector dominance: 27% of employment, limiting private sector growth
• Climate change: Increasingly disrupting output and threatening livelihoods
• Structural reforms: Needed to improve competitiveness, reduce public sector size, and enhance trade facilitation

Recent Developments

• Diamond agreements: New partnership with De-Beers, including a 10-year extension of the sales agreement
• Fiscal policy: Cushioned subdued domestic demand through subsidies and social welfare programs
• Inflation: Fell more quickly than expected, reaching 7.8% in 2023H1
• Infrastructure: Energy and water projects implemented to boost growth

Outlook

• Growth: Expected to slow to 3.8% in 2023, then increase to 4.3% in 2025
• Inflation: Expected to remain within the Central Bank's target range
• Poverty: Projected to remain stable at 14.1% in the medium term
• Fiscal balance: Expected to improve with credible implementation of consolidation plans
• Debt: Expected to decline to 52.4% of GDP by 2025
• Uncertainty: Heavy dependence on global diamond demand and potential supply/demand fluctuations could affect fiscal and monetary stability

Summary of Key Trends