20200831-招银国际-万科A-000002.SZ-Forerunner_5页_945kb

报告摘要

CMB International Securities | Equity Research | Company Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides an update on Vanke - A (000002 CH), a leading Chinese property developer. It includes financial performance analysis, earnings forecasts, and valuation insights for the company in the first half of 2020 (1H20) and beyond. The report also includes key financial metrics, market data, and analyst ratings.

Main Points

Financial Performance in 1H20

Revenue: Increased by 5.0% to RMB146.4bn.
Net Profit: Rose by 5.6% to RMB12.5bn.
Property Development Revenue: Grew by 2.3% to RMB131.4bn, driven by a 24% increase in Delivery GFA to 10.5mn sq m, but ASP (Average Selling Price) declined 19% to RMB12,668 per sq m, which affected revenue growth.
Other Businesses:
- Construction: Up 64.9% to RMB4.4bn.
- Property Services: Increased 26.8% to RMB6.7bn.
- Rental: Grew 25.2% to RMB2.6bn.
- Other Business: Rose 52.5% to RMB1.2bn.
Gross Margin: Declined 4.4 ppts to 31.8%.
EBIT: Decreased 6.2% to RMB39.2bn.
Net Profit Margin: Stabilized at 10.1%.

Contracted Sales

1H20: Contracted sales dropped 4.0% to RMB320.5bn, with Shanghai as the largest contributor at 41.3%.
Sales Pace: Accelerated in July, increasing 22.5% YoY to RMB59.02bn.
Sales Forecast for 2020: Maintained at RMB650bn, up 3% YoY.

Land Bank

Attractable Land Bank: 94mn sq m as of June 2020.
New Acquisitions: 55 projects with 5.05mn sq m attributable GFA.
Average Land Cost: RMB6,368 per sq m.
Land Bank Breakdown:
- Under Construction: 65.95mn sq m.
- Future Development: 28.03mn sq m.
- New Start Area: 29.21mn sq m expected in 2020.
Completion GFA: 10.75mn sq m in 1H20, expected to reach 22.44mn sq m in 2H20, which will accelerate earnings growth.

Property Management

Contracted GFA: 680mn sq m.
Managed GFA: 520mn sq m.
New Contracted GFA Added: 53mn sq m in 1H20.

Valuation and Recommendations

Target Price (TP): Reduced from RMB31.6 to RMB31.36.
Earnings Forecast: Maintained unchanged.
NAV Forecast: Cut from HK$52.42 to HK$48.46.
Recommendation: BUY, with a potential return of +13.7% from the current price of RMB27.57.

Key Information

Earnings Summary

Year	Revenue (RMB mn)	YoY Growth (%)	Net Profit (RMB mn)	YoY Growth (%)	EPS (RMB)	YoY Growth (%)
FY18A	297,083	25.2	33,773	20.4	3.06	20.4
FY19A	367,894	23.8	38,872	13.3	3.47	13.3
FY20E	442,402	20.3	44,742	13.1	3.92	13.1
FY21E	497,475	12.4	51,212	12.5	4.41	12.5
FY22E	521,397	4.8	53,879	5.2	4.64	5.2

Earnings and Profit Margins

Year	Gross Margin (%)	EBIT Margin (%)	Net Margin (%)
FY20E	31.8	26.2	10.1
FY21E	31.8	26.6	10.3
FY22E	31.7	26.5	10.3

Share Performance

Period	Absolute Return (%)	Relative Return (%)
1-mth	2.6	-1.4
3-mth	7.3	-14.4
6-mth	-6.8	-24.2
12-mth	6.9	-16.2

Key Ratios

Metric	FY18A	FY19A	FY20E	FY21E	FY22E
Gross Margin (%)	37.0	35.9	31.8	31.8	31.7
Pre-tax Margin (%)	29.9	30.3	26.2	26.6	26.5
Net Margin (%)	11.4	10.6	10.1	10.3	10.3
Net Gearing (%)	30.9	34.3	28.1	23.2	30.6
ROE (%)	21.7	20.7	19.6	19.3	17.8
Current Ratio (x)	1.2	1.1	1.2	1.2	1.2
Inventory Day	1471.3	1396.5	1149.8	1118.3	1152.7
Payable Day	598.0	538.0	453.8	425.5	420.0
Receivable Day	407.7	348.9	298.7	284.7	294.0
Net Debt/Equity (%)	-17%	-17%	-17%	-17%	-17%
BVPS (RMB)	14.11	16.64	19.65	22.80	25.98

Analyst Recommendations

CMBIS Rating: BUY.
Target Price: RMB31.36 (down from RMB31.6).
Potential Return: +13.7% from current price of RMB27.57.
Earnings Forecast: Unchanged.
NAV Forecast: Revised downward to HK$48.46.

Company Overview

Shareholding Structure: Shenzhen Metro holds 27.91%.
Market Data:
- Market Cap: HK$309,779mn.
- Avg 3 Mths Turnover: HK$2,749mn.
- 52 Weeks High/Low: HK$33.6 / HK$24.18.
Total Issued Shares: 1,894mn (H) and 9,724mn (A).

Additional Insights

Construction Impact: Construction work was affected by COVID-19 but has returned to normal.
Sales Trends: Sales pace started to accelerate in July 2020, with RMB59.02bn in contracted sales.
Earnings Revisions: CMBIS estimates are slightly higher than the consensus for FY20E, FY21E, and FY22E.
Growth Drivers: Strong growth in construction, property services, rental, and other businesses.
Investment Properties: Valued at RMB87.5bn, with a 6% cap rate.
Shareholder Equity: Expected to grow to RMB308.246bn by FY20E.

Risk and Disclaimer

Risks: The report does not provide individual investment advice and is based on publicly available information.
Disclaimer: CMBIS may have investment banking relationships with the companies mentioned in the report, and may have conflicts of interest.
Legal Responsibility: CMBIS is not liable for any loss, damage, or expense arising from reliance on the information provided.
Distribution Restrictions: The report is intended for major US institutional investors, Accredited Investors, Expert Investors, or Institutional Investors in Singapore and the UK.