20260928-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_5页_1019kb

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed market update and analysis from the Fixed Income Department of CMBI Global Markets Limited, focusing on the fixed income market dynamics, key issuers, and macroeconomic developments.

Market Update

• Asia IG Space: Light flows were observed this morning. Long-end bonds were under better selling pressure. Chinese TMT and TW lifers T2 were weak, with KUAISH/TME widening 2-3bps. Front-end names saw buying interest.
• CNH ZHHFGR: The security was unchanged to 0.3pt lower.
• UBS: Reports suggest UBS is considering a merger with a foreign bank to avoid Swiss regulations. Several foreign banks are also exploring similar combinations. UBS bonds were unchanged.
• Higher-Yielding Space: EU AT1 bonds were unchanged to 0.2pt lower. SOFTBK curve rose 0.1-0.5pt. Chinese developers CHJMAO/GRNCH/LNGFOR rebounded 0.1-0.3pt. Chinese industrial bonds FOSUNI/HONGQI/WESCHI moved -0.5pt to +0.2pt. Flows in LGFV space were light. Active names CDSNFE/CHDOHU/HKIQCL were unchanged to 0.2pt lower. In CNH space, the new DJYCAA '29 rose 0.1pt, while HTHT '31 was unchanged to 0.1pt lower. CNH TMT bonds BABA/MEITUA/TENCNT lowered 0.1-0.3pt.

Top Movers

Macro News Recap

• Stock Market: S&P (+0.51%), Dow (+0.93%), and Nasdaq (+0.48%) were up on last Friday.
• UST Yields: 2/5/10/30 year UST yields were at 4.81%/4.98%/5.17%/5.49%. The 2/5 year yields retreated, while the 30 year yield rose.
• Economic Indicators: US Aug'26 Durable Goods Orders were unchanged mom, contrary to market expectations of -0.3% mom.

Desk Analyst Comments

MEDCIJ

• Potential Early Redemption: Medco may consider early redemption of its USD bonds, particularly MEDCIJ '28s and '29s.
• Outstanding Amounts:
  • MEDCIJ '28s: USD261mn outstanding, callable at par on 12 Nov'26.
  • MEDCIJ '29s: USD482mn outstanding, callable at 102.24 on 27 Oct'26.
• Current Prices:
  • MEDCIJ '29s: Trading at 102.4 with a YTW of 6.9%.
  • MEDCIJ '30s: Trading at 103.3 with a YTW of 7.2%.
• Credit Profile: Maintained as a lower-beta carry play, supported by Medco's resilient operating performance and sufficient liquidity.
• Financial Highlights (1H26):
  • Revenue: USD1,415mn (+23.4% yoy).
  • Gross Profit: USD588mn (+30.2% yoy).
  • EBITDA: USD805mn (+29.3% yoy).
  • EBITDA Margin: 56.9% (+2.6 ppts).
  • Profit Before Tax: USD477mn (+151.5% yoy).
  • Operating Cash Flow: USD515mn (+46.6% yoy).
  • Capex: USD188mn (-2.7% yoy).
• Liquidity: Cash increased to USD1,402mn from USD629mn. Net debt decreased to USD3.016bn from USD3.330bn. Net debt/LTM EBITDA improved to 2.1x from 2.6x.
• Outlook: Maintain buy on MEDCIJ '29s and '30s.

New Issues

• Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced): No new issues were priced today.
• Offshore Asia New Issues (Pipeline):
  • Korea Housing Finance Corp: USD, 5yr, T+60, Aa2/AA/-.
  • The Government of the Hong Kong SAR: USD, 3yr, T+3, Aa3/AA+/AA-.

News and Market Color

• Onshore Primary Issuances: 2 credit bonds issued last Friday, totaling RMB1bn. Month-to-date, 1,871 credit bonds were issued with RMB1,867bn raised, representing a 1% yoy decrease.
• MYLIFE: Fitch revised outlook to positive from stable, reflecting improved capitalization, strengthened company profile, and sophisticated asset-liability management.
• MONMIN: Moody's revised outlook to positive from stable, due to improving scale and business diversification from the Bayan Khundii gold mine.
• NWDEVL: New World Department Store China is expected to turn to loss for FY26.
• PRUFIN: Fitch upgraded Prudential plc to AA- and core subsidiaries to AA, reflecting robust financial performance and a 'Most Favorable' company profile.

Important Disclosures

• CMBIGM or its affiliates have investment banking relationships with the issuers covered in this report.
• There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information may not be suitable for all investors.
• CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
• Past performance does not guarantee future results.
• The value of investments is uncertain and may fluctuate.
• The report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.

Disclaimer

• UK Recipients: This report is only for persons falling within Article 19(5) or Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Financial Promotion Order 2005.
• US Recipients: CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the US. The report is intended for "major US institutional investors" only.
• Singapore Recipients: The report is distributed by CMBISG, an Exempt Financial Adviser, and may be provided to non-accredited investors only to the extent required by law.

Author Certification

• The author certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect their personal views.
• No part of the author's compensation is related to the views expressed.
• The author has not traded in the stock(s) covered in the report within 30 days prior to its issue.
• The author will not trade in the stock(s) covered in the report within 3 business days after its issue.
• The author has no financial interests in the companies covered in the report.