20260807-招银国际-Pipeline_execution_being_the_key_re-rating_driver_5页_1mb

Pfizer Inc. (PFE US) Summary

Core Content

Pfizer Inc. (PFE US) reported strong performance in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), with revenue reaching US$15.0bn and adjusted diluted EPS of US$0.77. In the first half of 2026 (1H26), the company achieved US$29.5bn in revenue, representing a +4% YoY growth and aligning with expectations. Ex-COVID revenue grew by 9% YoY, driven by key products such as Eliquis, Padcev, the Vyndaqel family, and Lorbrena. However, continued weakness in COVID-related products slightly offset this growth.

Pfizer raised the lower end of its FY26 revenue guidance to US$60.5–62.5bn (midpoint of US$61.5bn, a -2% YoY decline), and reaffirmed its adjusted EPS guidance at US$2.80–3.00. The company has set a long-term target for high single-digit 5-year revenue CAGR beyond 2028.

Key Assets and Pipeline

• Berobenatide (PF'3944): One of Pfizer's most important near-term assets, currently in Phase 3 trials. The VESPER-3 trial showed a ~12% placebo-corrected weight loss at the 4.8mg monthly dose. VESPER-4 and VESPER-5 are fully enrolled, while VESPER-6 is ongoing and will test up to 9.6mg monthly. The company plans to start 10 pivotal studies for the asset in 2026.
• Combination with PF'3945 (monthly Amylin): Data expected in 2H26, which could significantly enhance the obesity franchise.
• PF'4404 (PD-1xVEGF): A core oncology asset, with Phase 3 trials underway in 1L mCRC, 1L NSCLC, and 1L endometrial cancer. Additional trials in 1L mUC are planned. It is being combined with the ADC platform to enhance its therapeutic potential.
• Padcev: Continued to be a major commercial growth driver, with 23% YoY revenue growth in 2Q26 to US$667mn. It now covers the full bladder cancer spectrum, including 1L la/mUC and perioperative MIBC in both cisplatin-eligible and ineligible settings. EV-309 could expand its use into bladder-sparing MIBC. A Phase 3 study of Padcev + PF'4404 in 1L mUC is planned, which could further strengthen the long-term franchise positioning.

Financial Highlights

Analyst Ratings and Valuation

• Rating: BUY (Maintained)
• Target Price: US$35.75 (Previously: US$35.46)
• Price Performance:
  • 1-mth: 8.8%
  • 3-mth: -1.1%
  • 6-mth: -3.7%
• DCF Valuation:
  • 2026E: US$203,148bn
  • Terminal Value: US$330,896bn
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 2.0%
  • WACC: 9.95%
• Valuation Range (Sensitivity Analysis):
  • Terminal Growth Rate:
    • 3.0%: 47.55
    • 2.5%: 44.81
    • 2.0%: 42.47
    • 1.5%: 40.45
    • 1.0%: 38.68

Shareholding and Market Data

• Market Cap: US$148,894.6mn
• Average 3-month turnover (US$ mn): 427.4
• 52-week High/Low (US$): 28.55/23.60
• Total Issued Shares (mn): 5,683.0

Shareholding Structure

• Vanguard: 9.6%
• Blackrock: 8.7%

Key Financial Metrics

• Gross Margin: 76.00% (2026E), up by +0.70 ppt
• Operating Margin: 30.8% (2026E), up by +0.70 ppt
• Net Margin: 26.6% (2026E), down by -0.14 ppt
• ROE: 12.4% (2026E), up by +3.3%

Analyst Recommendations

• BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months
• HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months
• SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months
• NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIGM
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark

Conclusion

Pfizer is positioned to benefit from strong pipeline execution, especially in the obesity and oncology sectors. The revised earnings forecasts and target price reflect the company's potential for future growth and the analysts' confidence in its long-term strategic initiatives. Despite short-term revenue declines, the company's adjusted EPS and profitability metrics remain robust, with a focus on improving the efficacy/tolerability balance of its key assets. The BUY rating indicates that the stock is expected to deliver significant returns in the coming year, driven by the pipeline progress and commercial success of its key products.