巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-阿根廷：大选追踪-20181231-42页_929kb

Argentina: Election Tracker Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the 2019 Argentine election process, including the election calendar, political parties, voting intentions, and the current composition of Congress. It also outlines the political landscape and economic policies of key parties and highlights the main issues facing the country.

Election Calendar and Process

• Presidential Election:
  The first round of the presidential election will take place on the same date as the legislative elections. If no candidate secures 45% of the valid votes or at least 40% with a 10-point lead over the runner-up, a second round will be held.

• Legislative Elections:
  In 2019, one-third of the Senate and half of the lower chamber will be elected on the same date as the first round of the presidential election.

• Provincial Elections:
  All provinces, except Corrientes and Santiago del Estero (which had elections in 2017), will elect governors and local legislators. Most provinces have separated their local elections from the national ones, with Buenos Aires’ date still to be announced.

Main Political Parties and Coalitions

Cambiemos (Centre-right Coalition)

• Likely Candidate: President Mauricio Macri.
• Economic Policies:
  • Liberalised FX market.
  • Reduced energy subsidies.
  • Implemented fiscal adjustments, which were accelerated in 2018-19.
  • Secured a USD57bn package from the IMF in 2018 due to lack of market access.
• Congress Seats:
  • Senate: 26 / 72.
  • Lower chamber: 108 / 257.
• Party Leaders: Mauricio Macri (PRO), Antonio Cornejo (UCR), Elisa Carrió (CC-ARI), María Eugenia Vidal (PRO).

Frente para la Victoria (Peronist Party Spin-off)

• Likely Candidate: Former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.
• Economic Policies:
  • Aims to "unite the citizens to limit the power of President Macri and to prevent the elimination of social rights."
  • Plans to ensure party unity by not allowing legislators to vote against the party's agenda.
• Congress Seats:
  • Senate: 9 / 72.
  • Lower chamber: 64 / 257.
• Party Leader: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

Peronist Party (Partido Justicialista)

• Potential Candidates: Roberto Lavagna, Daniel Scioli, Sergio Massa, etc.
• Economic Policies:
  • Founded by General Perón in 1946, known for its focus on social justice and close ties to labor unions.
  • Has around 3.5 million affiliates (as of 2017).
• Congress Seats:
  • Senate: 23 / 72.
  • Lower chamber: 37 / 257.
• Party Leaders: Miguel Pichetto and Diego Bossio.

Political Image and Voting Intentions

• Confidence in Government:

  • The general public's confidence in the government was low, as reflected in various polls.

• Fiscal Adjustment Perception:

  • Voters were divided on the fiscal adjustment proposed in the 2019 budget bill, with mixed views on its impact.

• Voting Intentions (First Round):

  • Cambiemos: 39% (including Macri, Vidal, Carrió).
  • Kirchnerism: 31% (including Kirchner, Kicillof, Rossi).
  • Peronist Party: 12% (including Lavagna, Scioli, Massa).
  • Other: 5%.
  • Undecided: 8%.

• Voting Intentions (Second Round):

  • If needed, the second round would likely feature a battle between the top candidates from the first round, with the exact distribution yet to be determined.

Current Composition of Congress

• 2017 Legislative Election Results:

  • Cambiemos: 41.75% (Lower chamber), 41.01% (Senate).
  • Unidad Ciudadana: 22.51% (Lower chamber), 33.33% (Senate).
  • Partido Justicialista: 10.9% (Lower chamber), 7.50% (Senate).
  • 1 País: 5.86% (Lower chamber), 9.53% (Senate).
  • Frente de Izquierda (FIT): 4.30% (Senate).
  • Other parties hold smaller shares.

• Seats at Stake in 2019:

  • Senate: 35 seats are up for election, including 3 from CABA, 3 from Buenos Aires, and others from various provinces.
  • Lower Chamber: 124 seats are up for election, with significant stakes in provinces like Buenos Aires, CABA, and others.

Key Information and Observations

• Provincial Governor Party Affiliation (as of 2015):

  • Cambiemos: 4 governors (Buenos Aires, Corrientes, Jujuy, Mendoza).
  • Frente para la Victoria: 12 governors (Catamarca, Chaco, Entre Ríos, Formosa, etc.).
  • Compromiso Federal: 1 governor (San Luis).
  • Progresistas: 1 governor (Santa Fe).
  • Provincial Alliances (no national front): 5 governors (Chubut, Córdoba, La Pampa, etc.).

• Re-election Rules for Governors:

  • 3 provinces allow indefinite re-election: Catamarca, Formosa, Santa Cruz.
  • 2 provinces allow re-election for two additional terms: Salta, San Juan.
  • 17 provinces allow re-election for one additional term.
  • 2 provinces allow re-election but not for consecutive terms: Mendoza, Santa Fe.

Conclusion

The 2019 Argentine elections are a critical moment for the country, with a focus on both national and provincial levels. The political landscape is dominated by Cambiemos and the Peronist coalition, with significant public sentiment against the current government and a desire for change. The economic policies of the main parties reflect contrasting approaches, with Cambiemos pushing for market liberalisation and fiscal adjustment, while Kirchnerism and Peronist parties emphasize social rights and protection of public interests. The election results will likely shape Argentina's future economic and political direction.