巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-阿根廷：大选追踪-20190625-53页_3mb

报告摘要

Argentina: Election Tracker Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the political landscape and key developments in Argentina's 2019 elections, focusing on the presidential race and provincial elections. It outlines the strategic alliances, key candidates, and the influence of macroeconomic factors on voter sentiment.

Main Points

1. Alliances and Candidate Selections

President Macri has selected Miguel Pichetto, a moderate Peronist, as his running mate. This move aims to strengthen the ruling coalition and signal a shift towards more centrist policies.
Sergio Massa has joined Cristina Kirchner's front to run for the Lower House, indicating a potential realignment of political forces.
The selection of Pichetto highlights the fragmentation of Peronism, as it includes both Kirchnerist and moderate Peronist elements.

2. Economic Impact and Market Reactions

Pichetto's selection was positively received by financial markets, due to his strong legislative record and potential to support structural reforms.
Macri's net image improved in May and June, largely due to a more stable exchange rate.
The IMF's USD57bn package was secured due to the government's inability to access capital markets since Q2 2018.

3. Electoral Trends and Regional Focus

Massa's support has declined significantly since 2013, but he still holds strong in Buenos Aires and Cordoba.
Kirchner's image has deteriorated, but her supporters still show strong backing, especially in Buenos Aires province.
Buenos Aires province accounts for 45% of the electorate, making it a key region for the presidential race.

4. Election Calendar and Process

The presidential election is scheduled for 27 October 2019, with a first-round vote and potential second-round if no candidate secures the required votes.
Provincial elections are also happening in various regions, with some provinces electing governors and local legislators.
Buenos Aires province will hold elections on the same day as the presidential election, potentially boosting Macri's chances due to its large population.

5. Political Fragmentation

Peronism is fragmented, with multiple factions and alliances, including the Frente de Todos and Consenso Federal 2030.
The ruling coalition, Cambiemos, includes the Peronist party and other centrist parties, with Macri as the main candidate.
The left-wing coalition includes Kirchnerism, Frente de Todos, and other parties, with Alberto Fernandez and Cristina Kirchner as main candidates.

6. Key Constituencies

Buenos Aires province is a critical region for both Macri and Kirchner, with Kirchner historically winning in the province.
Cordoba is a key stronghold for Macri, where he won three-fourths of the votes in the 2015 second-round.
Santa Fe is a key area for Peronist Omar Perotti, who has not yet aligned with any major candidate.

7. Voter Sentiment and Key Issues

Confidence in government remains low, despite a slight improvement in May.
Economic expectations improved in May, with positive expectations exceeding negative ones for the first time since November 2017.
Macroeconomic drivers such as disposable income and FX stability are crucial for voter confidence.
Fiscal adjustment is a major concern, with mixed views on the proposed measures.
Inflation and economic recession have significantly affected voter perceptions of Macri's leadership.

Key Information

Candidates and Alliances

Macri (Cambiemos) – Partner: Miguel Pichetto
Fernandez-Kirchner (left-wing coalition) – Pre-candidates: Alberto Fernandez and Cristina Kirchner
Lavagna (Consenso Federal 2030) – A potential candidate with strong economic credentials
Massa (Frente de Todos) – Running for Lower House, with strong support in Buenos Aires and Cordoba

Election Calendar Highlights

Presidential Primaries: 8 August 2019
Presidential Election: 27 October 2019
Provincial Elections: Various dates throughout 2019, with Buenos Aires and CABA on 27 October

Economic Policies

Macri's Policies: FX liberalization, energy tariff subsidies reduction, fiscal adjustment, and IMF support.
Kirchner's Policies: Nationalization of pension funds, capital controls, and distorted national statistics.
Lavagna's Policies: Focus on preventing exchange rate appreciation and boosting domestic demand.

Voter Perceptions

Macri's Net Image: Improved by 8pp in June
Kirchner's Net Image: Deteriorated by 10pp
Fernandez's Net Image: Deteriorated since the alliance was announced
Massa's Net Image: Improved among Kirchner's supporters

Constituencies and Electoral Impact

Buenos Aires province is a critical region for both candidates, with Kirchner historically winning in the province.
Cordoba is a key area for Macri, where he has strong support.
Santa Fe is a stronghold for Omar Perotti, who has not yet aligned with a major candidate.

Political Parties and Seats in Congress

Cambiemos (PRO): 26 Senate seats, 108 Lower Chamber seats
Frente de Todos (Kirchnerism): 9 Senate seats, 64 Lower Chamber seats
Consenso Federal 2030 (Lavagna): 23 Senate seats, 37 Lower Chamber seats
Other Parties: Include Socialist Party, Partido Justicialista, and Juntos por el Cambio

Conclusion

The 2019 elections in Argentina are marked by political fragmentation, economic uncertainty, and strong regional dynamics. The presidential race is expected to require a second round, with Macri and Fernandez-Kirchner as the leading candidates. The provincial elections are also crucial, with Buenos Aires and CABA being key battlegrounds. The economic performance and exchange rate stability are major factors influencing voter sentiment, with Macri's image improving and Kirchner's deteriorating. The alliances and internal dynamics within the Peronist movement and the ruling coalition will play a pivotal role in determining the election outcome.