巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-阿根廷：大选追踪-20190430-45页_1mb

报告摘要

Argentina Election Tracker Summary (April 2019)

Core Content

This document provides an updated overview of the 2019 Argentine election landscape, including the election calendar, primary results, key political issues, and the political affiliations of current and potential candidates. It is a comprehensive tool designed to help understand the political dynamics and voter sentiments ahead of the presidential and provincial elections.

Main Points

Election Calendar and Process

National Election: Held on 27 October 2019. If no candidate secures 45% of the votes in the first round, a second round will be required.
Provincial Elections: Conducted on the same day as the national first round. Most provinces have separated their local elections from the presidential election, except Buenos Aires, which has combined them.
Governor Elections: 22 provinces will elect governors, with some provinces holding elections in June and others in September and October.

Provincial Elections Highlights

Buenos Aires: A major province with 40% of the population. The governor, María Eugenia Vidal, is a key figure for President Macri's re-election chances.
Córdoba: The second largest province, which played a significant role in Macri's 2015 victory. The primary election is a focal point for the ruling party.
Santa Fe: The Peronist party performed well in the primary, with two candidates receiving 42.7% of the votes. The gubernatorial election will take place on 16 June.

Key Issues for the Electorate

Confidence in Government: Has declined significantly, especially since October 2017.
Fiscal Adjustment: A major concern, with the government accelerating fiscal consolidation due to market access issues.
Economic Situation: Voters perceive economic problems as the main challenge, with 55.6% identifying economic issues as the primary concern.
Expectations for the Future: A mix of hope and skepticism, influenced by the current economic state and political climate.

Political Parties and Leaders

Cambiemos (Ruling Coalition)

Leader: Mauricio Macri (President), Alfredo Cornejo (UCR), Elisa Carrió (CC-ARI), María Eugenia Vidal (PRO).
Economic Policies: Focus on liberalizing the FX market, reducing subsidies, and implementing fiscal adjustments.
Congress Seats: 26 in the Senate and 108 in the lower chamber.
Net Image: President Macri's net image stabilized in April, while Cristina Kirchner's improved due to economic performance concerns.

Frente Unidad Ciudadana (Left-Wing Opposition)

Leader: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (Partido de la Victoria).
Economic Policies: Aim to unite citizens against Macri and protect social rights.
Congress Seats: 9 in the Senate and 64 in the lower chamber.
Net Image: Positive image for Cristina Kirchner, but negative for other pre-candidates.

Peronist Party (PJ)

Leaders: Miguel Pichetto and Diego Bossio.
Economic Policies: Historically focused on social justice, with a large number of affiliates (around 3.5 million in 2017).
Congress Seats: 23 in the Senate and 37 in the lower chamber.
Other Pre-Candidates: Roberto Lavagna, Sergio Massa, and Juan Manuel Urtubey, who have significant negative public image.

Provincial Governor Elections

Provincial Re-Election Rules

Indefinite Re-election: Catamarca, Formosa, Santa Cruz.
Two Additional Terms: Salta, San Juan.
One Additional Term: Buenos Aires, CABA, Chaco, Chubut, Córdoba, Corrientes, Entre Ríos, La Pampa, La Rioja, Misiones, Neuquén, Río Negro, San Luis, S. del Estero, T. del Fuego, Tucumán.
Non-Consecutive Terms: Mendoza, Santa Fe.

Political Affiliation of Provincial Governors

A visual representation showing the political affiliation of Argentina's 23 provincial governments.

Important Information

The document includes recent polls and data on political leaders' public image and rejection rates.
The format is designed to be user-friendly and regularly updated.
The analysis may not be independent and could be influenced by conflicts of interest.