2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Zimbabwe_First_Review_of_the_Staff_43页_1000kb

Zimbabwe: First Review of the Staff-Monitored Program Summary

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the First Review of the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for Zimbabwe, conducted in early 2015. It details the economic developments, program performance, policy discussions, and risks associated with the country's efforts to stabilize its economy and restore confidence with creditors.

Main Objectives of the SMP

The 15-month program, approved in October 2014, aims to:

• Strengthen Zimbabwe’s external position to enable arrears clearance and debt servicing.
• Rebuild the capacity to repay through fiscal consolidation.
• Restore financial stability and confidence in the financial system.
• Improve the business climate and mobilize international support.

Recent Developments and Economic Outlook

A. Background

• The Zimbabwean authorities are implementing macroeconomic and structural reforms under the SMP.
• The program is a key element of the country’s roadmap to reengage with creditors and development partners.

B. Recent Developments

• Real GDP growth slowed in 2014, despite a strong agricultural recovery.
• Mining and manufacturing sectors remained weak due to supply constraints, price declines, and infrastructure deficits.
• Inflation remained low, reflecting the depreciation of the South African rand.
• External position improved, but remained precarious with international reserves covering only two weeks of imports.
• Primary fiscal deficit was well within the program target, with expenditure savings offsetting lower-than-expected revenue.

C. Macroeconomic Outlook and Risks

• Weak growth is expected in 2015 due to erratic rains and fiscal challenges.
• Inflation is projected to remain negative.
• Key risks include:
  • Further decline in global commodity prices.
  • Fiscal challenges due to high production costs and limited revenue.
  • Possible difficulties in policy implementation.

D. Program Performance

• All quantitative targets and structural benchmarks for the first review were met.
• Central government operations showed improved fiscal discipline, with a primary fiscal deficit of 0.7% of GDP (vs. 1% target).
• Structural benchmarks included:
  • Cabinet approval of the Public Debt Management Bill.
  • ZAMCO’s mandate, strategy, and objectives approved.
  • Progress in indigenization and empowerment reforms.

Key Policy Discussions

A. Restoring Fiscal Sustainability

• Fiscal consolidation is critical for rebuilding reserves and restoring repayment capacity.
• The authorities aim to bring the primary fiscal deficit close to balance in 2015.
• Employment costs are being controlled through:
  • Hiring freeze and promotion freeze.
  • Redundancy elimination.
• Revenue mobilization includes:
  • Increased excise duties on fuel, beer, and cigarettes.
  • Higher levy on tobacco growers.
  • Strengthening revenue administration with IMF technical assistance.

B. Restoring Confidence and Financial Stability

• The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) has recapitalized and assumed noncore debt from the government.
• Three troubled banks were placed into liquidation, reducing nonperforming loans (NPLs).
• ZAMCO is being operationalized to resolve NPLs and improve financial system health.
• A credit registry unit has been established, and credit reference bureaus are being set up with support from the World Bank.

C. Resolving External Payments Arrears

• External debt burden and arrears limit access to financing and stifle growth.
• The authorities have increased payments to the World Bank (WB) and African Development Bank (AfDB), signaling reengagement with creditors.
• Concessional financing is preferred, and the country is seeking support from development partners.
• ZIM ASSET (Zimbabwe Asset Management Strategy) is a key framework for sector-specific investments to enhance repayment capacity.
• The Zimbabwe Reconstruction Fund has been established to support ZIM ASSET implementation.

D. Unlocking Potential for Sustained Growth

• Zimbabwe is below its growth potential, requiring stronger policies and reforms.
• The business climate is a priority for attracting investment and restoring investor confidence.
• The Indigenisation and Empowerment Act was amended to clarify roles for line ministries and improve compliance and monitoring.
• Labour reforms are underway, including amending the 1985 Labour Relations Act to enhance labor market flexibility and productivity.
• Infrastructure gaps, poor business climate, and land-related issues remain structural impediments to growth.

Program Design and Monitoring

• The SMP is monitored through quantitative targets and structural benchmarks.
• Quantitative targets were adjusted to reflect weaker economic growth and delayed revenue gains.
• Structural benchmarks focus on:
  • Fiscal transparency and accountability.
  • Improving public financial management (PFM).
  • Restoring financial system confidence.
  • Enhancing the business climate.

Staff Appraisal

Achievements

• Reforms have been initiated to improve growth prospects.
• External arrears have slowed in accumulation.
• Fiscal discipline has been maintained, with reduced wage bill.
• EU sanctions were lifted, signaling improved relations with development partners.

Challenges

• Economic growth continues to slow due to competitive pressures and limited external inflows.
• Mineral export prices are declining, further straining the fiscal position.
• Debt distress remains a major challenge.
• Infrastructure rehabilitation is hampered by limited fiscal space.

Creditor Relations

• The increase in payments to WB and AfDB is a positive step toward Paris Club debt rescheduling.
• Continued SMP performance is essential to justify future financial arrangements with the IMF.
• The authorities are encouraged to engage creditors and communicate progress to accelerate reengagement.

Key Contacts and Resources

• IMF Publications: Available from IMF Publications.
• Price: $18.00 per printed copy.
• Contact:
  • Email: publications@imf.org
  • Phone: (202) 623-7430
  • Fax: (202) 623-7201
  • Address: International Monetary Fund, PO Box 92780, Washington, D.C. 20090.