2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Sudan_First_Review_Under_the_Staff_54页_1mb

Sudan: First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for Sudan, focusing on macroeconomic performance, program implementation, and future outlook as of April 2014. It includes assessments from the IMF staff, the government's position, and key economic indicators.

Main Points and Key Information

Political Context

• Sudan is engaging in a national dialogue with opposition groups and armed factions in Blue Nile and South Kordofan to address instability and prepare for the 2015 presidential elections.
• A framework agreement was reached with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement—North to halt fighting.
• Recent arrests of political leaders and closure of newspapers may hinder the dialogue process.
• Security conditions in South Sudan remain fragile, affecting Sudan's stability and economic outlook.

Macroeconomic Situation

• Inflation dropped to 35.7% in March 2014 from 41.9% in December 2013, driven by lower food prices.
• Monetary conditions were tight, with reserve money growth at 3.2% and broad money at 6.7%.
• The curb market exchange rate depreciated by 10% against the U.S. dollar due to South Sudan conflict and U.S. sanctions on foreign banks.
• Gross international reserves fell by US$90 million in the first quarter, below the program target of a US$50 million increase.

Program Performance

• Quantitative benchmarks were met, except for net international reserves and net domestic assets of the Central Bank of Sudan (CBOS).
• Social spending and non-oil primary deficit were slightly missed, but corrective actions were taken to meet targets in the second quarter.
• Structural benchmarks for end-June were largely achieved, indicating progress in reform implementation.

Outlook for 2014

• Non-oil GDP growth is expected at 2.5%, driven by agricultural recovery and improved export performance.
• Inflation is projected to decline to 18.1%, supported by fiscal consolidation and monetary tightening.
• Fiscal deficit is expected to reduce to 1.2% of GDP, while current account deficit is projected to narrow to 6.9% of GDP.
• Real GDP growth is expected to rise to 5% by 2018, with inflation continuing its downward trend to single digits.

Risks

• Downside risks include fragile security, domestic political uncertainty, and regional tensions.
• The recent peace agreement in South Sudan may help stabilize the oil market and reduce risks.
• Social unrest could occur if fuel price adjustments are not managed carefully.

Key Program Components

A. Fiscal Consolidation

• Revenue mobilization and non-priority spending reduction are central to the SMP.
• A tax and customs reform committee was formed to review tax policies and improve non-oil revenue.
• Fuel subsidies are a major concern, with current spending at 0.5% of GDP and expected to rise to 2% by year-end.
• The government plans to phase out subsidies by 2017 through a flexible pricing mechanism and public information campaigns.
• Public financial management (PFM) reforms are being implemented, including the Treasury Single Account and improved budget execution.

B. Monetary Policy Credibility

• The Central Bank of Sudan (CBOS) must maintain a tight monetary stance to control inflation and stabilize the exchange rate.
• Inflation targets are considered realistic based on an autoregressive model.
• CBOS independence and communication strategy are emphasized to improve policy effectiveness and public understanding.
• The issuance of sukups (Government Muharba Certificates and Government Investment Certificates) is used to mop up excess liquidity.

C. Exchange Rate Flexibility

• Exchange rate flexibility is crucial to reduce the 50% gap between the official and curb market rates.
• The curb market rate has remained stable since September 2013, despite inflationary pressures.
• The government has introduced measures to improve foreign exchange market functioning, including allowing foreign exchange bureaus to transact at any rate and exporters to sell to importers.
• A gradual convergence of exchange rates is planned by June 25, 2014, through adjustments to the indicative rate and trading bands.

D. Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth

• Enhancing competitiveness is a priority to support inclusive growth.
• The exchange rate flexibility and monetary reforms aim to improve the real exchange rate and restore economic competitiveness.

E. Protecting the Most Vulnerable

• A public information campaign is planned to build support for reforms and protect vulnerable groups.
• Social safety nets and targeted assistance are emphasized to cushion the impact of reforms on the population.

F. Debt Issues

• The debt situation is monitored closely, with the focus on sustainable fiscal performance and external financing.

Supporting Documents and Data

• Boxes provide additional insights:

  • Box 1: Highlights the influx of South Sudanese refugees into Sudan, with an estimated 62,500 by end-April 2014.
  • Box 2: Presents an inflation forecasting model using OLS regression, showing the relationship between inflation, exchange rates, and monetary growth.
  • Box 3: Discusses sources of growth in Sudan, emphasizing agriculture and exports.

• Figures include:

  • Figure 1: Influx of refugees from South Sudan.
  • Figure 2: Breakdown of refugee settlements.

• Tables provide economic and financial indicators for Sudan from 2010 to 2014, including GDP, fiscal balances, and monetary data.

Authorities' Views

• The government supports the IMF staff's assessment and is committed to implementing the SMP.
• They acknowledge the challenges of inflation control, exchange rate management, and fiscal discipline.
• Fuel subsidies are expected to be phased out by 2017, with public support being a key concern.
• PFM reforms and tax mobilization are prioritized to ensure fiscal sustainability and economic recovery.

Conclusion

The SMP is providing a policy framework to guide Sudan through economic recovery and political transition. While progress has been made, risks remain high, particularly due to security instability, regional conflicts, and domestic political uncertainty. The government's commitment to fiscal and monetary reforms is critical to achieving the IMF's macroeconomic targets and ensuring long-term economic stability.