20230910-光大期货-大类资产配置周报_19页_808kb

Report Summary

1. Overseas Macro: The report highlights that US economic data, such as the ISM services PMI exceeding 54.5, indicates strong consumer demand and economic resilience, reducing recession risk. However, cost pressures may sustain inflation, leading to rising market expectations for the Fed to hike interest rates, possibly in November. The probability of a 25-50 basis point hike in November is increasing.

2. Large-cap Asset Performance: Assets were weighted with USD leading, followed by Chinese bonds. Bonds saw yields rise due to inflation concerns, while equities across global markets declined amid Fed rate expectations—MSCI indices fell between -0.068% and -0.800%. Commodities reacted to USD strength, with oil prices rising but gold down; fundamentals include domestic policy support but external pressures from currency moves.

3. Next Week's Focus: Key events to monitor include U.S. economic indicators like August CPI and the ECB's interest rate decision, along with domestic data on monetary policy and real estate support measures.