2025-06-17-Bernstein-豪瑞有限公司（HOLN）_豪瑞-如何应对Amrize分拆_28页_2mb

Holcim & Amrize Spin-Off Summary

Core Content

Holcim Ltd is spinning off its North American business, Amrize, on 23rd June 2025. This spin-off will result in two independent entities: Holcim stand-alone and Amrize. The report provides insights into the potential price movements of both stocks post-spin and outlines the investment implications based on fundamental analysis and peer comparisons.

Key Information

• Price Target for Holcim: CHF 120/share, implying a 29% upside potential.
• Holcim Stand-Alone Price Target: CHF 65/share, corresponding to ~10.8x 2025E EV/EBITDA.
• Amrize Price Target: CHF 55/share (or $62/share), corresponding to ~11.9x EV/EBITDA.
• Valuation Split: 54% of the valuation comes from Holcim stand-alone, and 46% from Amrize.
• Trading Dates:
  • On 20th June, existing Holcim shareholders will receive shares of both entities in kind.
  • On 23rd June, Amrize will start trading independently on the Swiss and New York exchanges.

Main Peers and Business Mix

Holcim

• Heavy Side Peers: Heidelberg, Buzzi, Vicat.
• Light Side Peers: Sika, Saint-Gobain, Kingspan, Rockwool.
• Business Mix:
  • Cement: ~50% of sales, ~68% of EBITDA.
  • Aggregates: ~15% of sales, ~10% of EBITDA.
  • RMX: ~22% of sales, ~9% of EBITDA.
  • Building Systems: ~12% of sales, ~8% of EBITDA.

Amrize

• Peers by Business Segment:
  • Aggregates: Vulcan Materials, Martin Marietta, CRH.
  • Cement: CRH, Eagle Materials, Titan Materials.
  • Building Envelope: Carlisle, GAF, Johns Manville.
• Business Mix:
  • Cement: 36% of sales, 34% of EBITDA.
  • Aggregates & Other: 36% of sales, 43% of EBITDA.
  • Building Envelope: 27% of sales, 23% of EBITDA.

Investment Implications

• Holcim is rated Outperform due to:
  • Decarbonisation efforts in Europe, which could lead to margin expansion.
  • Growth potential in Latin America.
  • Pricing power from exposure to consolidated markets.
• Amrize is considered undervalued, with potential upside based on:
  • Strong position in aggregates and cement in North America.
  • Expansion into building envelope markets.
  • Potential for demand growth once trade deals are resolved.

Trading Scenarios

• Scenario 1: If both stocks trade in proportion to the valuation split (54% for Holcim and 46% for Amrize), it would indicate no relative under/over-valuation.
• Scenario 2: If Amrize drops below $35–40/share (~7–8x EV/EBITDA), support levels could emerge.
• Scenario 3: If Amrize rises above $75–80/share (~14–16x EV/EBITDA), investors may take profit.
• Scenario 4: If Holcim rises above CHF 80/share (~14x EV/EBITDA), some investors may take profit.
• Scenario 5: If Holcim falls below CHF 45/share (~7–8x EV/EBITDA), there could be widespread support for the stock.

Valuation Metrics

Financial Projections

Valuation Multiples

• Holcim Stand-Alone: ~10.8x EV/EBITDA, ~15x EV/EBIT.
• Amrize: ~11.9x EV/EBITDA, ~13.0x EV/EBIT.

Conclusion

The spin-off presents both opportunities and risks. While the market may initially be cautious due to short-term US sentiment, the long-term growth prospects for both Holcim and Amrize are promising. The report suggests that both stocks could trade at levels that reflect their respective valuations and that investors should be prepared for different scenarios based on market reactions to the spin-off.