2021年第三季度西欧电视广告报告（英）-13页_938kb

Summary of AMPERE Analysis: Western Europe TV Advertising Outlook, Q3 2021

Core Content

Ampere Analysis provides an overview of the TV advertising market in Western Europe for Q3 2021, highlighting both the progress made and the ongoing challenges due to the pandemic and its economic effects.

Main Points

• Economic Recovery: Western Europe has shown resilience in economic recovery, but Q3 2021 marked a slowdown. The IMF and OECD have revised their GDP forecasts for 2021 due to this trend.
• GDP Growth: Sequential GDP growth in Q3 was slower than in Q2, driven by easing restrictions and economic reopening, but still below market expectations. The UK, France, and Italy had the most significant GDP increases.
• Unemployment Trends: The unemployment rate continued to fall, but consumer spending recovery lost momentum. Retail sales in some countries, such as the UK, Germany, Spain, and Scandinavia, declined due to supply chain issues and the Delta variant.
• Consumer Confidence: France and Italy showed improved consumer confidence, with retail sales rebounding and personal financial concerns decreasing.
• TV Advertising Performance: TV advertising revenue in Western Europe experienced an average year-on-year decline of 3% in Q3 2021, aligning with seasonal trends. This decline reflects long-term market trends but also shows relative stability as brands rely on trusted media for recovery.
• Market Variability: The performance of TV advertising varied across countries. The UK and Germany showed stronger rebounds, while Spain lagged behind, and Italian markets were affected by the timing of major sporting events.
• Broadcasters' Performance:
  • UK: ITV led the way with 11% year-on-year growth in Q3 2021, attributed to coverage of the Euro 2020 football tournament. The UK TV advertising market is projected to reach £3.7bn in FY 2021, down 5% from 2019.
  • Germany: ProsiebenSat.1 and RTL saw growth, with ProsiebenSat.1 up 6% year-on-year and RTL up 2% compared to 2019. Germany's TV ad revenue is expected to reach €4.2bn, a 4% decline from 2019.
  • France: Despite a 7% decline in Q3 2021 compared to 2020, French broadcasters credit continued investment and major sporting events for their performance. The market is forecast to reach €3.1bn in FY 2021, a 5% decline from 2019.
  • Italy: TV ad revenue showed some recovery, with Mediaset Italia up 1% year-on-year. However, the market is expected to reach €3.1bn in FY 2021, a 4% decline from 2019.
  • Scandinavia: The market experienced 7% average year-on-year growth in Q3 2021, with NENT reporting 11% growth compared to 2020 and 3% compared to 2019. The overall Scandinavian TV ad market is projected to decline by 7% from 2019, reaching $1.5bn.
  • Spain: TV ad revenue increased by 2% year-on-year but remained below pre-pandemic levels. Mediaset España reported 1% growth in Q3, a 6% decline from 2019. Spain's recovery is expected to be the weakest in the region.

Key Information

• Overall Forecast for FY 2021: TV advertising revenues in major European markets are expected to be on average 6% below 2019 levels.
• Q4 Outlook: Strong Q4 results are anticipated, but growth will remain slower than pre-pandemic levels.
• Sensitivity to Pandemic: TV advertising markets remain sensitive to public health measures and the economic impact of new strains of the virus.
• Omicron Variant Monitoring: Ampere will continue to monitor the recovery pace of the regional economy and developments related to the Omicron variant.

Conclusion

While Western Europe's TV advertising market has shown signs of recovery, it remains below pre-pandemic levels. The market's performance is influenced by economic conditions, public health measures, and the timing of major events. Ampere predicts a continued but slower recovery for FY 2021, with the potential for stronger performance in Q4.