穆迪-全球银行业2018展望-20171206-43页_1mb

Moody's 2018 Outlook for Global Banking Sector

Core Content

Moody's 2018 Outlook for the global banking sector highlights the following key areas:

• Economic Growth and Creditworthiness: Global economic growth is expected to improve, supporting bank creditworthiness. However, low interest rates and high nonperforming loans (NPLs) will continue to constrain profitability.
• Regulatory Compliance and Costs: Banks face ongoing costs from regulatory compliance and technology investments, which may limit profitability improvements.
• Fintech and Technology: Technological advancements are reshaping the banking sector, creating both challenges and opportunities for traditional institutions.
• Regional Outlooks: The report outlines specific outlooks for the EU, North America, and Emerging Markets (EM), with varying levels of growth, regulatory progress, and risk factors.

Main Points

Global Growth and Creditworthiness

• Positive Economic Trends: Global growth is expected to remain stable and broad-based, with the G20 economies projected to grow by 3.2% in 2018.
• Downside Risks: Certain countries face risks due to political uncertainty, such as the UK (Brexit), Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa.
• Low Returns: Despite growth, bank profitability remains subdued due to low interest rates and persistent NPLs in some jurisdictions.
• Asset Prices: Elevated asset prices, particularly in housing and equities, pose risks of correction if economic conditions deteriorate.

Regulatory Landscape

• Capital and Liquidity Compliance: Basel III capital and liquidity standards are largely in place, but some jurisdictions may still see changes that affect capital ratios.
• Regulatory Costs: Compliance costs will continue to impact profitability, especially with the introduction of IFRS 9.
• Resolution Regimes: Progress is being made in aligning resolution regimes with FSB standards, with some jurisdictions like Canada and Singapore finalizing their frameworks.
• Political Delays: Completion of the Banking Union is delayed due to political differences, particularly around mutualized deposit protection.

Fintech and Technology

• Digitization: Banks are investing in technology to improve efficiency and customer retention, but immediate profitability gains are unlikely.
• Competitive Pressure: Fintech firms and nontraditional financial services providers are increasing their presence, challenging traditional banks.
• Cost to Income: Some banks are seeing improvements in cost-to-income ratios, but efficiency gains may not directly translate to higher profits due to price competition.

European Union

• Growth and Policy: The euro area is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2018, with ECB interest rates unlikely to rise before 2019.
• Asset Quality: Asset quality is expected to remain stable or improve, but legacy NPLs and weak debt work-out frameworks may delay balance sheet clean-up.
• Banking Union Progress: The EU Banking Union is not expected to be fully realized in 2018 due to political and legal differences, particularly around EDIS and cross-border supervision.

North America

• US Banks: Improved core profitability and asset quality are expected, but risks include NPLs in auto and credit card portfolios.
• Canadian Banks: Face pressures from high household leverage and a new resolution regime that may reduce government support assumptions.
• Household Debt: Canadian household debt has seen substantial growth, increasing vulnerability to economic shocks.

Emerging Markets

• Positive Growth Outlook: EMs are expected to experience positive macroeconomic growth, supported by stabilized commodity prices.
• Private Sector Leverage: Elevated private sector indebtedness remains a key risk factor, particularly if growth slows or interest rates rise.
• Capital Inflows: Improved capital inflows in some EMs will support bank liquidity, but rising interest rates may increase funding costs.
• Asset Quality and Profitability: EM banks have strong capital and profitability buffers, but asset risk may still be a concern.

Key Information

• Global Economic Trends: Favorable growth conditions are expected to underpin bank creditworthiness, but low returns and high leverage remain challenges.
• Regulatory Developments: IFRS 9 and MREL requirements will impact banks' capital and profitability.
• Fintech Influence: Traditional banks are under pressure from fintech firms and need to adapt to new competition and customer expectations.
• Regional Variations: Different regions face unique challenges and opportunities, with the EU and EMs showing varying degrees of progress and risk.
• Banking Union: The completion of the Banking Union is expected to take time due to political and legal hurdles.

Summary

Moody's 2018 Outlook for the global banking sector indicates that while broad-based economic growth supports creditworthiness, profitability remains constrained by low interest rates and high NPLs. Regulatory compliance and technology investments continue to drive up costs, and fintech firms are increasing their competitive presence. In the EU, growth is expected to pick up, but regulatory and political challenges delay the full realization of the Banking Union. North America sees improved conditions for US banks, while Canadian banks face risks from high leverage and new resolution regimes. Emerging markets benefit from positive growth and stabilized commodity prices, but elevated private sector leverage remains a structural vulnerability. Overall, the banking sector is expected to maintain stable creditworthiness, with a focus on risk management and regulatory alignment.