欧盟-2017年Q4欧盟成员国及潜在成员国经济报告（英文版）-2018.1-48页-1mb

EU Candidate & Potential Candidate Countries’ Economic Quarterly (CCEQ) - 4th Quarter 2017

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic performance of EU candidate and potential candidate countries in the Western Balkans and Turkey during the fourth quarter of 2017. It includes data on GDP growth, employment trends, inflation, trade balances, fiscal positions, and monetary developments.

Main Points

Economic Growth

• The Western Balkans experienced a continued economic recovery with a real GDP growth of 2.5% in Q3 2017, up from 2.1% in Q2 2017.
• Albania: GDP growth slowed to 3.5% y-o-y due to a sharp decline in investment and goods exports.
• The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM): Growth returned to 0.2% y-o-y after a contraction in Q2, with household spending and exports driving growth.
• Montenegro: Maintained a robust growth of 4.7% y-o-y, driven by domestic demand.
• Serbia: GDP growth accelerated to 2.1% y-o-y, mainly from investment and household consumption.
• Bosnia and Herzegovina: Growth remained at 2.9% y-o-y, with private consumption and exports as key drivers.
• Kosovo: Annual output growth remained at 4.4%, supported by strong investments and net exports.
• Turkey: Annual GDP growth reached 9.6%, driven by state-guaranteed loans and a strong recovery in household consumption.

Labour Market

• Job creation slowed in most Western Balkan countries despite the economic recovery.
• Albania: Annual employment growth decelerated to 1.3% from 3.5% in Q2.
• FYROM: Employment growth slowed to 2.1% from 2.7%.
• Serbia: Unemployment increased to 12.9% from 11.8%.
• Montenegro: Employment growth was 3.1% y-o-y, down from 3.2%.
• Turkey: Employment growth accelerated to 4.5%, leading to a drop in the unemployment rate to 10.7%.

Trade and Current Account

• Merchandise trade deficits remained high across the Western Balkans, ranging from 12% of GDP in Serbia to 42% in Montenegro and Kosovo.
• The current account deficit narrowed in all countries except Serbia, reaching 5% of GDP for the region in the four quarters to September.
• Turkey: The current account deficit increased to 4.8% of GDP in October 2017, primarily due to a rising trade deficit.

Inflation

• Low inflation remains a key characteristic of Western Balkan economies, but some upward pressure was observed.
• Albania: Annual CPI inflation stood at 1.8% in December.
• FYROM: CPI inflation accelerated to 2.2% in November.
• Montenegro: CPI inflation reached 3% in November.
• Serbia: CPI inflation was at 3%, the midpoint of its target band.
• Turkey: CPI inflation decelerated to 11.9% in December, still above the central bank’s target.

Monetary Policy

• The Bank of Albania maintained a low key policy rate at 1.25%.
• The central bank of FYROM kept its benchmark interest rate at 3.25%.
• The central bank of Serbia kept its key policy rate at 3.5% after two cuts.
• The Albanian lek appreciated by 0.6% against the euro in Q4 2017 and 1.7% over the whole year.

Financial Sector

• Credit growth remained subdued in unadjusted terms but improved when adjusted for exchange rate effects and loan write-offs.
• Albania: NPL ratio dropped to 14.3% in November from 20.4% in November 2016.
• Serbia: NPL ratio reached its lowest since 2009 at 12.2%.
• Bosnia and Herzegovina: NPL ratio stood at 10.8%.
• Montenegro: NPL ratio was 7.4%.
• Turkey: NPL ratio decreased slightly to 2.9% in November.

Fiscal Developments

• Fiscal consolidation efforts slowed in some countries, leading to higher deficits.
• Albania: Budget deficit for Jan-Nov 2017 was 0.7% of GDP.
• Serbia: Budget surplus reached 2.1% of GDP.
• Turkey: General government debt decreased to 28.2% of GDP in Q3 2017, down from 28.7% in Q2.
• 2018 Budget: Revenues and expenditures are projected to increase by 4.9% y-o-y to 28% and 30% of GDP, respectively, with the deficit target set at 2% of GDP.

Key Information Summary

Conclusion

The Western Balkans and Turkey showed mixed economic performance in Q4 2017. While the region as a whole experienced growth, challenges such as high trade deficits, persistent unemployment, and fiscal imbalances remained. Turkey's growth was notably strong, driven by government stimulus and a drop in inflation, whereas Albania and FYROM faced slower growth and higher unemployment. Fiscal consolidation efforts were uneven, with some countries managing to reduce deficits while others saw an increase. Monetary policy remained accommodative in most countries, with inflation generally low but showing signs of upward pressure in certain areas. The financial sector in the region showed improvement in credit growth and NPL reduction, which is a positive sign for long-term economic stability.