2017年Q4欧盟成员国及潜在成员国经济报告（英文版）_46页_1mb

EU Candidate & Potential Candidate Countries’ Economic Quarterly (CCEQ) – 4th Quarter 2017

Core Content Summary

The 4th Quarter 2017 Economic Quarterly report for EU Candidate and Potential Candidate Countries highlights the economic performance, labor market conditions, and external sector dynamics across the Western Balkans and Turkey. It provides an overview of GDP growth, employment trends, fiscal and monetary developments, and the state of the financial sector.

Main Economic Developments

GDP Growth

• Western Balkans: Annual GDP growth in the region reached 2.5% in Q3 2017, up from 2.1% in Q2 2017.
  • Albania: GDP growth slowed to 3.5%, down from 4.0% in Q1 and 4.1% in Q2.
  • The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM): Growth returned to 0.2% after a contraction in Q2.
  • Serbia: GDP growth accelerated to 2.1%.
  • Montenegro: Growth remained robust at 4.7%.
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH): Growth stayed at 2.9%.
  • Kosovo: Maintained 4.4% growth.
• Turkey: Annual GDP growth surged to 9.6% due to state stimulus and strong investment, though macroeconomic imbalances like high inflation and a current account deficit remain.

Labour Market

• Employment growth slowed in most Western Balkan countries:
  • Albania: Annual employment growth decelerated to 1.3% from 3.5%.
  • Montenegro: Employment growth dropped to 3.1% from 3.2%.
  • Serbia: Employment growth fell to 2.4% from 4.3%.
  • FYROM: Employment growth decreased to 2.1% from 2.7%.
• Unemployment rates:
  • Albania: 14.0% (down from 14.2%).
  • Serbia: 12.9% (up from 11.8%).
  • BiH: Unemployment rate declined to 26.0% for youth.
  • Turkey: Unemployment rate dropped to 10.7%.
• Labour force participation decreased slightly in most countries, with a notable gender gap.

External Sector

• Current Account Deficits: Narrowed in all countries except Serbia.
  • Western Balkans: Deficits ranged from 6.3% to 18% of GDP.
  • Serbia: Deficit remained at 5.4% of GDP.
  • Turkey: Current account deficit increased slightly to 4.7%.
• Net Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) covered 141% of the current account deficit in the twelve months to September 2017.
• International Reserves: Remained stable at EUR 2.85 billion, covering 6.5 months of imports.

Inflation

• Low inflation remained a key characteristic of Western Balkan economies.
  • Albania: CPI inflation at 1.8% in December, below the central bank’s target.
  • Serbia: CPI inflation at 3.0%, within the target tolerance band.
  • FYROM: CPI inflation at 2.2% in November.
  • Montenegro: CPI inflation at 3.3%.
  • BiH: CPI inflation at 1.1%.
  • Kosovo: CPI inflation at 0.8%.
  • Turkey: CPI inflation dropped to 11.9%, still above the target of 5%.

Monetary Policy

• Albania: The Bank of Albania kept the key policy rate at 1.25%, with a stable exchange rate against the euro.
• Serbia: Central bank maintained an accommodative stance with a key rate of 3.5%.
• ECFIN forecast: Inflation is expected to reach the 3% target by mid-2019.

Fiscal Developments

• Western Balkans: Fiscal consolidation slowed in some countries.
  • Albania: Budget deficit stood at 2.1% of GDP in Q3 2017, with a revised 2017 budget aiming to keep the deficit at 2.0%.
  • FYROM: Central government deficit contracted to 2.2% of GDP.
  • Serbia: Achieved a 2.1% budget surplus in 2017.
  • Montenegro: Fiscal deficit increased to 3.6% of GDP.
  • Turkey: General government debt declined to 28.2% of GDP in Q3 2017, but the deficit increased to 4.7%.
• Public Debt: Declined as a percentage of GDP due to higher nominal GDP, but remained high in Albania, Serbia, and Montenegro.

Financial Sector Developments

• Credit Growth: Increased in most countries, with household lending outpacing corporate lending.
  • Albania: Credit growth was 3.1% y-o-y after adjusting for exchange rate effects.
  • NPL Ratios: Continued to decline across the region.
    • Albania: NPL ratio at 14.3%, down from 20.4% in 2016.
    • Serbia: NPL ratio reached 12.2%, the lowest since 2009.
    • FYROM: NPL ratio at 10.8%.
    • Montenegro: NPL ratio at 7.4%.
• Banking Sector: Capital adequacy ratios improved, with the overall sector at 16.4% in Q3 2017.

Key Views and Recommendations

• Economic Recovery: Continued in the Western Balkans, supported by private consumption and investment.
• Job Creation: Slowed in most countries, with the unemployment rate still high.
• Fiscal Discipline: Needed in several countries to reduce public debt and rebuild fiscal buffers.
• Monetary Policy: Maintained accommodative stance to support growth, with inflation targets to be met by 2019.
• Competitiveness: Trade deficits remain high, limiting the external sector's resilience.
• Reforms: Emphasized to enhance economic growth potential and competitiveness, especially in Albania and FYROM.

Conclusion

The 4th Quarter 2017 report outlines a mixed economic picture for the Western Balkans and Turkey. While growth has been supported by consumption and investment, structural challenges such as high public debt, trade deficits, and high unemployment persist. Fiscal consolidation and monetary policy adjustments are crucial for long-term stability. The region's economic trajectory remains closely tied to EU integration and external demand.