2017年Q4欧盟成员国及潜在成员国经济报告（英文版）_48页-1mb

EU Candidate & Potential Candidate Countries’ Economic Quarterly (CCEQ) - 4th Quarter 2017

Core Content Summary

This report provides an overview of the economic performance of EU candidate and potential candidate countries in the fourth quarter of 2017, focusing on growth, employment, external balances, inflation, and fiscal developments.

Main Points

Economic Growth

• Western Balkans: The region's real GDP growth reached 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2017, up from 2.1% in the third quarter and 2.8% in the same quarter of the previous year.
• Country-specific Growth:
  • Albania: Real GDP growth slowed to 3.5% y-o-y.
  • Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Growth returned to 0.2% y-o-y after a contraction in the previous quarter.
  • Montenegro: Growth remained at 4.7% y-o-y, driven by domestic demand.
  • Serbia: GDP growth accelerated to 2.1% y-o-y, mainly due to investment and consumption.
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina: Growth remained at 2.9% y-o-y, supported by private consumption and exports.
  • Kosovo: Annual output growth remained at 4.4% y-o-y, driven by strong investments and net exports.
  • Turkey: Annual GDP growth reached 9.6%, largely due to government stimulus measures.

Employment and Unemployment

• The labour market in the Western Balkans remained challenging, with a slowdown in job creation.
• Albania: Unemployment rate dropped to 14.0% from 14.2% in the previous quarter.
• Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Unemployment rate fell to 22.1% from 22.2%.
• Montenegro: Unemployment rate decreased to 15.1% from 15.3%.
• Serbia: Unemployment rate increased to 12.9% from 11.8%, due to a higher participation rate and lower informal employment.
• Turkey: Unemployment rate dropped to 10.7% from 11.0%.

External Sector

• Current Account Deficits: Narrowed in most Western Balkan countries, but remained vulnerable.
• Albania: Current account deficit decreased to -6.0% of GDP from -6.3% in the third quarter.
• Serbia: Deficit remained at -5.4% of GDP.
• Turkey: Current account deficit increased to -3.9% of GDP, up from -2.4% in the previous quarter.
• Trade Deficits: High across the region, with some countries recording deficits of 12% to 18% of GDP.
• Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Covered 141% of the current account deficit in the twelve months to September 2017.

Inflation

• Western Balkans: Low inflation remains a key characteristic, with most countries below the 3% target.
• Albania: Annual CPI inflation stood at 1.8% in December, down from 2.2% in December 2016.
• Serbia: CPI inflation was at 3%, the midpoint of the target tolerance band.
• Montenegro: CPI inflation rose to 3.0% in the fourth quarter.
• Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: CPI inflation increased to 2.2%.
• Turkey: CPI inflation decelerated to 11.9% in December, still significantly above the 5% target.

Monetary Policy

• Albania: The Bank of Albania kept its key policy rate at 1.25%, and is expected to maintain monetary stimulus until the first half of 2019.
• Serbia: The central bank kept its key policy rate at 3.5% after two cuts of 25 bps in September and October 2017.
• Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.25% since February 2017.

Financial Sector

• Credit Growth: Increased in most Western Balkan countries, with household lending outpacing corporate lending.
• Non-Performing Loans (NPLs): NPL ratios decreased in most countries, with Albania recording the highest at 14.3% in November.
• Capital Adequacy: The banking sector in the Western Balkans was well-capitalised, with a capital adequacy ratio of 16.4% in Albania.

Fiscal Developments

• Fiscal Consolidation: Progress slowed in some countries, leading to increased fiscal deficits.
• Albania: Budget deficit for the first eleven months of 2017 was -2.1% of GDP, below the target of -2.0%.
• Serbia: Fiscal surplus reached 2.1% of GDP in the third quarter.
• Turkey: General government debt declined from 28.7% to 28.2% of GDP in the third quarter.
• Public Debt: Remained high in Albania, Serbia, and Montenegro, at 69.7%, 62.6%, and 61.7% of GDP, respectively.

Key Information

• The report highlights that while the Western Balkans experienced economic recovery, challenges such as high trade deficits, slow job creation, and fiscal imbalances persist.
• Turkey stood out with strong GDP growth and a notable drop in the unemployment rate.
• Albania faced a slowdown in economic growth and a decline in exports.
• The European Commission continues to monitor the economic progress of these countries, especially in relation to EU accession criteria.

Conclusion

The fourth quarter of 2017 saw continued economic recovery in the Western Balkans, albeit at a slower pace than previous quarters. While growth was supported by private consumption and investment, external imbalances and high public debt levels remain a concern. Fiscal consolidation efforts were uneven, and the financial sector showed improvement in reducing NPLs. The report also underscores the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline and improving competitiveness to meet EU accession requirements.