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Summary of BIS Working Paper No 1191

Title: The impact of macroprudential policies on industrial growth
Author: Carlos Madeira
Date: May 2024

This study analyzes the causal impact of macroprudential policies on industrial growth using detailed industry-country data spanning 1990–2021. The exogenous nature of policy changes relative to small industries addresses reverse causality issues.

Key findings:

• Tightening macroprudential policies negatively affects growth, primarily for industries with high external financing dependence. The effect is economically significant (e.g., ~0.29% reduced growth for fully dependent industries in the same year) and persists over time.
• The impact is stronger in advanced economies, during banking crises, and in periods of high growth.
• Policy effects vary by country group: Advanced economies (~1.07% lost growth over three years), emerging markets (~0.68%), and low-income countries show mixed results.
• Effects are mediated through credit channels, with borrower and lender restrictions playing a key role.
• During crises, easing policies positively impact growth, potentially mitigating adverse effects.

The results highlight the heterogeneous effects of macroprudential policies and underscore the importance of industry-specific design to avoid unintended growth costs.