2025-05-19-Jefferies-追踪泳池3月泳池建设许可恢复增长_10页_295kb

报告摘要

US residential pool construction permits increased by 4% year-over-year in March 2025, recovering from a decline in February, with 1Q25 permits showing a 1% year-over-year increase.
Data is sourced from BuildFax and analyzed for ~80% US jurisdiction coverage, adjusted to compensate for volatility and predict final permit counts, though March data carries wider confidence intervals and potential restatements.
Permits performed in line with seasonality but were weaker than historical M/M trends and expected by pool companies, who foresee muted demand.

Non-seasonal states (Arizona, California, Florida, Texas) drove growth, with permits up 7% Y/Y in March, outperforming seasonal markets that saw a 2% decline.
Specific state performances:
- Arizona: +5% Y/Y
- California: +2% Y/Y
- Florida: +16% Y/Y
- Texas: -13% Y/Y
Texas declines highlight state-specific challenges amid broader permit trends.

Fluidra SA: Valued with a target price based on EV/EBITDA and DCF; risks include weaker residential demand, inventory destocking, and competition.
Hayward Holdings, Inc.: Valued via EV/EBITDA and peer analysis; risks involve economic growth, discretionary spending, distribution reliance, and weather impacts.
Pentair Ltd.: Valuation using combined EV/EBITDA and PE multiples; risks encompass global economy, currency, and acquisition-related uncertainties.
Pool Corporation: Assessed with EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiples; risks include housing cycles and interest rates.

Analysts maintain Hold or Buy ratings with no significant changes in 2025, emphasizing risks like market volatility and external factors.
Pool companies uniformly expect flat or declining new construction, aligning with permit trends but within statistical error margins.
Full report includes historical price target data and detailed disclosures on conflicts of interest and regulatory compliance.

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