2025-05-19-Jefferies-收益率追踪报告第16期_24页_2mb

报告摘要

The Yield Tracker #16 Summary

Core Content

This report from the Jefferies European Real Estate team provides a detailed analysis of real estate yields in Europe, tracking three key metrics:

Net Initial Yields (NIY) as reported by companies
Implied NIY derived from equity market pricing
Reconstituted blended direct market yields based on CBRE data, incorporating portfolio geography and asset breakdowns.

The report highlights yield trends across multiple sectors and geographic regions in Europe, comparing the current market yields with the implied yields and the last published NIY. It also outlines the impact of yield changes on 52 European real estate companies.

Main Points

Yield Compression:
- Occurred in Offices, Hotels, and Logistics in the last month.
- Most pronounced in Vienna, Netherlands, and Italy.
- Denmark and Italian Logistics were the main areas affected, with CATE, XIOR, and SHUR seeing the most significant compression.
- Student residences in Italy (-40bp) and Spain (-15bp) experienced notable yield compression.
Yield Expansion:
- Observed in Hamburg (Offices +20bp), French major cities (Residential +10bp), and Swedish regional shopping centers (-25bp for Retail).
- TAG, ICAD, and LEG have seen the highest yield expansion since the end of 2022.
Equity Market Implied Yields vs. Direct Market Yields:
- Implied yields from the equity market tend to align with current market yields over the long term.
- Net initial yields (NIY) generally lag behind market data, making them less reflective of current conditions.
- The spread between implied yields and direct market yields indicates whether a company is overvalued or undervalued. A spread where implied yields are above direct market yields suggests the share price is undervalued.
Company Analysis:
- The report includes detailed yield analysis for each of the 52 companies, with rating, implied NIV, reconstituted direct yield, last published NIV, and yield spreads.
- BUY ratings are given to companies where the equity market implied yield is significantly above the direct market yield, indicating potential undervaluation.
- HOLD ratings are given to companies where the implied yield is close to or slightly below the direct market yield, suggesting no major mispricing.
- UNPF (Undersubscribed, Not Prime, or Not Fully Invested) is given to companies where the implied yield is below the direct market yield, indicating higher growth expectations or value creation from the pipeline.

Key Information

Table of Key Company Metrics

Company	Rating	Implied NIV	Recal Gross Market Yield	Last Published NIV	Spread Implied vs Market	Spread Implied vs NIV
Aedifica	HOLD	5.8%	5.2%	5.3%	66	52
Argan	BUY	5.8%	5.5%	4.9%	28	89
Arroundtown	UNPF	4.8%	5.1%	4.0%	-32	79
Big Yellow	BUY	6.6%	6.5%	5.3%	12	132
British Land	HOLD	5.7%	6.6%	4.9%	-89	80
Carmila	BUY	8.0%	5.6%	6.6%	245	146
Catena	UNPF	5.2%	5.0%	5.5%	16	-30
Castellum	UNPF	6.3%	5.0%	5.4%	128	92
Cibus	HOLD	5.3%	5.9%	6.2%	-70	-92
Cofinimmo	HOLD	6.3%	5.2%	5.6%	113	73
Colonial	HOLD	4.3%	4.5%	3.3%	-22	96
Covio	BUY	5.8%	4.9%	4.6%	89	122
CTP	BUY	5.8%	5.5%	5.5%	32	36
Derwent	HOLD	5.9%	4.0%	4.3%	191	161
ECP	BUY	7.3%	5.9%	5.7%	143	162
Empiric Student	BUY	6.6%	5.0%	5.5%	163	113
Fabeghe	HOLD	4.3%	4.6%	3.4%	-26	93
Gecina	BUY	5.2%	4.5%	4.1%	61	105
GCP	HOLD	5.2%	5.0%	3.7%	14	145
Grainger	BUY	4.6%	4.6%	3.9%	-2	70
Great Portland	HOLD	4.7%	4.5%	3.6%	14	105
Hammerson	UNPF	7.4%	7.2%	5.9%	20	147
Icade	HOLD	8.0%	6.5%	5.2%	148	281
Klepière	BUY	5.8%	5.9%	5.9%	-2	-7
LandSec	HOLD	6.8%	6.8%	5.4%	-4	136
LEG	BUY	4.8%	4.9%	3.8%	-9	99
London Metric	BUY	5.2%	4.8%	5.2%	44	5
Mercials	BUY	7.4%	5.2%	5.9%	218	150
Merlin	BUY	5.5%	5.4%	4.5%	14	99
Montea	BUY	5.7%	4.8%	5.1%	92	57
Safestore	HOLD	7.4%	6.3%	5.2%	107	220
Segro	HOLD	5.1%	4.9%	4.1%	23	100
Shafesbury	BUY	4.8%	4.9%	3.6%	-17	117
Sagax	UNPF	4.0%	6.5%	5.5%	-254	-152
Shurgard	HOLD	6.1%	6.1%	4.8%	3	130
SLP	HOLD	5.0%	5.0%	5.9%	-2	-92
Supermarket Income	HOLD	6.2%	5.0%	5.9%	122	32
TAG	BUY	5.8%	4.8%	5.0%	98	78
Target Healthcare	BUY	6.0%	4.8%	5.4%	121	58
Tritax	BUY	5.1%	4.8%	4.3%	30	79
Unite	BUY	5.8%	4.6%	5.1%	119	72
URW	BUY	6.3%	5.3%	5.5%	106	82
Urban Logistics	BUY	5.3%	4.8%	5.9%	52	-63
VGP	BUY	6.2%	5.1%	6.0%	107	27
Vonova	HOLD	4.0%	4.6%	3.3%	-64	69
Warehouse REIT	BUY	6.1%	5.0%	5.2%	112	92
WDP	HOLD	5.4%	5.2%	5.4%	18	3
Workspace	BUY	7.7%	5.8%	5.4%	198	233
Xior	BUY	5.1%	4.5%	4.6%	62	54

Key Observations

Yield Compression Trends:
- Observed in Offices, Hotels, and Logistics, with significant compression in major cities like Vienna and the Netherlands.
- Student residences in Italy and Spain also experienced notable compression.
- The trend started in H2-24 and supports the scenario of NAV growth in 2025.
Yield Expansion Trends:
- Only Hamburg and French major cities saw yield expansion in the YTD.
- TAG, ICAD, and LEG had the highest yield expansion since the end of 2022.
Equity Market vs. Direct Market Yields:
- The equity market tends to align with direct market yields over time.
- Implied yields are generally higher than direct yields, suggesting potential undervaluation.
- Net initial yields lag behind market data, which is a key point in assessing company valuations.

Conclusion

The report provides a comprehensive overview of current yield movements in European real estate, highlighting the divergence between equity market implied yields and direct market yields. It underscores the importance of tracking these metrics for valuation insights and investment decisions. Companies like Argan, Carmila, Empiric Student, and TAG are highlighted as having the most significant yield changes and potential for undervaluation, while others like Sagax and Castellum show signs of overvaluation. The analysis suggests that yield compression is a key driver of market dynamics, and that the equity market is increasingly reflective of current direct market conditions.

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