2026欧洲航空航天与国防供应链韧性研究报告_应对关键原材料供给风险_20页_759kb

报告摘要

Summary of "Resilient European aerospace & defense supply chains: Addressing critical raw material vulnerabilities"

Core Content

The report highlights the growing strategic importance of critical raw materials (CRMs) in the aerospace and defense (A&D) sector, emphasizing the need for coordinated government-industry action to secure supply and mitigate risks. With increasing demand from electrification, clean energy, and advanced technologies, and underinvestment in extraction and processing, raw materials have become a critical risk factor for A&D supply chains.

Main Points

1. Critical Raw Materials (CRMs) as Strategic Assets

Raw materials are essential for A&D platforms, including air, sea, land, and space systems.
The EU has identified 34 CRMs, while NATO has pinpointed 12 that are most critical for defense readiness and technological edge.
These materials include titanium, rare earth elements (REEs), and others used in structural components, propulsion, batteries, and electronic systems.

2. Categories of A&D-Critical Raw Materials

Base Materials: Aluminum (Al) and Titanium (Ti) are used in structural and engine components, with titanium being especially critical for high-performance applications.
Additive Materials: Cobalt (Co), lithium (Li), manganese (Mn), platinum (Pt), tungsten (W), and graphite are used in engine coatings, alloys, and armor.
Battery Materials: Cobalt, lithium, manganese, and graphite are key components in electric propulsion systems, especially for drones and battery-electric platforms.
Instrument Materials: Beryllium (Be), gallium (Ga), germanium (Ge), and REEs are crucial for electronic systems, sensors, and electric motors.

3. Root Causes of Shortages

Europe and the West lack control over the upstream value chain for most CRMs, with extraction and processing concentrated in countries like China and Russia.
Geopolitical tensions and supply chain dependencies on these countries pose significant risks.
The concentration of REE processing in China (90% of global capacity) and the limited availability of high-purity titanium sponge outside of China and Russia exacerbate the problem.

4. Key Materials and Their Risks

Titanium

Demand: Expected to grow significantly over the next decade, with A&D-related demand reaching 600–700 kilotons.
Supply Risks: High-purity titanium sponge is sourced mainly from China and Russia, creating geopolitical exposure. Current Western exposure to Russian-origin forged components is around 20%.
Mitigation: Recycling initiatives in France and the U.S. are advancing, but a supply gap of 100 kilotons could emerge without faster scaling of production and recycling.

Rare Earth Elements (REEs)

Demand: Estimated to reach several kilotons over the next decade, primarily for NdFeB magnets in electric and hybrid propulsion systems.
Supply Risks: China dominates REE processing and magnet production, with limited capacity elsewhere. Demand for Tb and Dy remains unmet.
Mitigation: Government support and strategic investments (e.g., U.S. DoD's partnership with MP Materials) are critical. Recycling is not yet mature enough to significantly offset supply shortfalls in the near term.

Key Solutions

1. Increase Production Capacity

Scaling up mining, refining, and processing of raw materials is essential.
Requires significant investment and potential re-evaluation of environmental regulations.

2. Large-Scale Recycling

Recovery of materials from end-of-life aircraft, engines, and drones can create a reliable domestic stockpile.
Challenges include limited maturity of recycling technologies and the difficulty of aggregating sufficient scrap volumes.

3. Development of Substitutes

Advanced alloys, composites, and redesigned components can replace scarce elements.
Substitution may not be feasible for all applications due to performance and reliability constraints.

Strategic Inflection Point

The A&D sector is at a critical juncture where securing raw materials requires both government and industry collaboration.
No single entity can address this alone; a coordinated approach is necessary to ensure long-term supply chain resilience.

Uncertain Outlook and Call to Action

The industry faces increasing uncertainty due to supply constraints and geopolitical risks.
Companies must identify critical materials and develop long-term risk mitigation strategies.
Investment in upstream processing and recycling is crucial, though the benefits will be shared across multiple industries.

Conclusion

The A&D sector must take proactive steps to secure access to critical raw materials, given the strategic and operational risks posed by supply chain vulnerabilities.
Government and industry partnerships, along with targeted investments, are essential for ensuring resilience and long-term capability delivery.

Key Investments and Initiatives

U.S. DoD and MP Materials: A 10-year offtake agreement and USD 400 million equity investment plus USD 150 million loan.
EU and Estonia: EUR 15 million grant for the Narva rare earth magnet plant under the Just Transition Fund.
Corporate Actions: Airbus and Safran invest in titanium recycling; Rolls-Royce expands casting capacity; Apple invests USD 500 million in MP Materials for recycling and neodymium/praseodymium sourcing.

Methodology

The report's projections are based on Roland Berger's proprietary aerospace & defense market models.
These models integrate OEM production forecasts, public company announcements, and insights from industry experts.