高盛-港股-房地产行业-香港住宅地产行业：关注长期而非短期-20181010-10页_492kb

报告摘要

Summary of Hong Kong Real Estate Policy Address and Market Implications

Core Content of the Policy Address

The 2018 Hong Kong Policy Address emphasized a long-term strategy to rebuild the housing ladder through increased land supply and a higher proportion of public housing. The government announced a shift in the public/private housing supply ratio to 70/30, up from the previous 60/40 target, as a key initiative. This reflects a stronger focus on supply-side measures rather than demand-side policies.

Key Initiatives and Policies

Housing Policy

Effective Use of Public Housing Resources: Introduce a concessionary measure for elderly under-occupied public rental housing households to pay no rent for life when transferred to smaller flats.
Land Sharing Pilot Scheme: A new initiative to address short- to medium-term housing demand by allowing the development of private land for housing.
Brownfield Operations: Complete two studies on brownfield land in New Territories to formulate policy and implementation measures.

Land Policy

Lantau Tomorrow Vision: A major reclamation and development initiative to create new land for housing and economic activities.
Urban Renewal: Involve the Urban Renewal Authority (URA) in redeveloping sites under the Civil Servants' Cooperative Building Society (CBS) Scheme, with a mix of public and private housing.
Utilisation of Vacant Government Sites: A $1 billion funding scheme to support non-profit community uses by NGOs.
Industrial Building Revitalisation: Reactivate the revitalisation scheme for industrial buildings to provide transitional housing, with flexibility in planning and design requirements.

Medium and Long-term Measures

Reclamation Projects: Accelerate near-shore reclamation at Sunny Bay and Siu Ho Wan, and planning for artificial islands in the Central Waters.
Smart and Sustainable Development: Implement smart, green, and resilient initiatives on Lantau, including district cooling systems and sustainable urban drainage.
Conservation Efforts: Establish a $1 billion Lantau Conservation Fund to protect ecological areas and enhance the natural beauty of Lantau.
Infrastructure Development: Improve strategic road and railway networks to support development on Lantau and artificial islands.
Economic Development on Lantau: Plan for aviation-related businesses, including a third Core Business District and expansion of AsiaWorld-Expo.

Market Implications

NAV Discount: The Hong Kong property sector is trading at a 49% discount to NAV, indicating undervaluation.
Sector Outlook: The government's focus on supply-side measures and public housing may lead to divergence in performance between mass-end and luxury residential markets.
Investor Sentiment: Unless secondary transaction volumes increase, the NAV discount is likely to remain wide.
Stock Picking Preference: The report suggests a preference for retail landlords and office landlords over residential developers due to the policy headwinds and rate hike concerns.
Top Pick: SHKP (Buy) is highlighted as the top pick due to its steady rental cash flow and sizeable development land bank.

Key Real Estate Companies

Company	Code	Rating	Market Value ($bn)	Price (HK$)	12-mo TP (HK$)	Potential Upside/Downside (%)	Fwd NAV (HK$)	NAV Discount (%)	5-year NAV Discount History	BVPS (HK$)	Cur. P/B	FY End P/E (X)	FY17A P/E (X)	FY18E P/E (X)	Div Yield (%)	Abs. Performance (%)
SHKP	0016.HK	Buy*	38	109.50	168.00	53.4	223.34	(51)	(22) / (31) / (38) / (45) / (51)	186.1	0.59	Jun	12	10	3.7 / 4.2 / 4.5	(2) / (9) / (16)
Sino Land	0083.HK	Buy	10	12.66	17.00	34.3	24.27	(48)	(21) / (28) / (35) / (42) / (48)	21.1	0.60	Jun	14	7	4.2 / 7.7 / 4.2	(2) / (0) / (9)
Hongkong Land (US$)	HKLD.SI	Buy	14	6.32	9.40	48.7	11.79	(46)	(4) / (18) / (27) / (37) / (42)	15.9	0.40	Dec	15	15	3.2 / 3.3 / 3.5	(7) / (12) / (10)
Swire Prop	1972.HK	Buy	21	28.45	33.20	16.7	41.50	(31)	(4) / (19) / (29) / (38) / (44)	47.0	0.61	Dec	21	17	2.7 / 2.9 / 3.1	(4) / (4) / 13
Wharf REIC	1997.HK	Buy	21	53.15	67.00	26.1	83.26	(36)	(n.a.) / (n.a.) / (n.a.) / (n.a.) / (n.a.)	70.7	0.75	Dec	17	17	1.8 / 4.0 / 4.2	11 / (7) / 2
CK Asset	1113.HK	Neutral	27	56.60	74.60	31.8	114.77	(51)	(n.a.) / (n.a.) / (n.a.) / (n.a.) / (n.a.)	84.5	0.67	Dec	10	6	3.0 / 3.4 / 3.7	1 / (9) / (17)
Kerry Prop	0683.HK	Neutral	5	25.30	37.60	48.6	83.52	(70)	(32) / (43) / (51) / (60) / (67)	66.7	0.38	Dec	5	7	5.9 / 5.5 / 5.9	(9) / (31) / (28)
Others	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Key Takeaways

The government is prioritizing long-term land supply and public housing.
The 70/30 public/private housing ratio is a significant policy shift.
Lantau Tomorrow Vision is a major reclamation and development project aimed at creating leisure, entertainment, and housing nodes.
NAV discount remains wide, and secondary transaction volumes are a critical factor in reversing this trend.
SHKP is highlighted as the top pick due to its strong rental cash flow and large land bank.
The report suggests selectivity in stock picking, favoring retail and office landlords over residential developers.

Risks and Considerations

Policy changes could significantly impact the sector.
Interest rate hikes pose a directional negative for developers.
Uncertainty around land supply and brownfield conversion.
Lack of details on transitional housing and its regulatory implications.
M&A considerations: Companies with high M&A rank (1 or 2) are more likely to be targets.