布鲁金斯学会-2022财年美国军队：海军（英）-38页_8mb

Summary of U.S. Military Forces in FY 2022

Core Content

The U.S. Navy in FY 2022 maintains a fleet size of approximately 296 ships, with a slight increase from the previous year. Active-duty personnel decrease by 1,600 to 346,200, while the Navy Reserve shrinks by 500 to 58,300. The civilian workforce increases by 1,141 to 200,192, reflecting a strategic shift to use civilians to offset military personnel constraints.

Key Points

Fleet Size and Composition

• Fleet Size: Stabilizes at 296 ships in FY 2022, with 15 ships retiring, 10 of which are early retirements.
• Shipbuilding Rate: The FY 2022 budget proposes the construction of only 8 ships, significantly lower than recent years. This is due to a decline in the Navy shipbuilding account from $23.3 billion in FY 2021 to $22.6 billion in FY 2022.
• Tonnage: The FY 2022 fleet has 83% of the tonnage of the 1988 fleet, but only 52% of the number of ships, indicating a trend toward larger, more capable vessels.

Future Fleet Architecture

• The future fleet architecture is still in development and includes a mix of traditional and new capabilities.
• Key Trends:
  • Carriers: The number of carriers is expected to decrease, but contractual and political constraints may keep the current number in place for years.
  • Large Surface Combatants: There are plans for deep cuts, which could lead to early retirements and production reductions.
  • Small Surface Combatants: All future architectures show an increase, though the rate and timing are uncertain.
  • Amphibious Ships: Reductions in large amphibious ships are anticipated, but industrial base concerns may counteract this.
  • Attack Submarines: Expected to increase, but production capacity limits will delay this growth until the 2040s.
  • Ballistic Missile Submarines: The Columbia-class program remains on schedule and within target cost, though it is the Navy's highest priority.
  • Unmanned Systems: Prominent in future architectures, but still experimental with no clear production plans.

Strategic and Budgetary Constraints

• Bipartisan Support for Expansion: There is broad support for expanding the Navy, but budget limitations and early retirements make this difficult.
• "Divest to Invest" Strategy: This strategy involves retiring older ships to fund new capabilities, but it has led to a smaller fleet in the short term.
• Deployment Demands: The Navy is expected to maintain around 100 ships deployed at any given time due to global commitments, even with a smaller fleet.
• Congressional Influence: Congress has historically pushed for more ships to meet global responsibilities, while the Biden administration's plan suggests a more modest and focused approach.

Main Views

Operational Requirements

• The Navy's current fleet size is seen as insufficient for its global responsibilities, leading to calls for expansion.
• Despite the "divest to invest" strategy, the Navy is struggling to meet the demands of ongoing operations and regional conflicts.

Budgetary Realities

• The FY 2022 shipbuilding budget is significantly lower than previous years, limiting the ability to build new ships.
• The cost of new fleet architectures is high, and funding may not be available to fully implement them.

Future Plans

• The Biden administration's emerging fleet plan includes smaller ships and a large number of unmanned systems.
• The Trump administration's 355-ship goal was deemed infeasible due to high costs and outdated operational concepts.
• The future fleet is expected to include more small ships, more submarines, and a greater emphasis on unmanned systems.

Key Information

Personnel Trends

• Active-duty personnel are decreasing, while the Navy Reserve is also shrinking.
• The civilian workforce is increasing, highlighting the Navy's reliance on non-military personnel for support functions.

Fleet Composition

• Aircraft Carriers: 11 in the current fleet, with plans for a reduction in number but continued reliance on their strategic value.
• Ballistic Missile Submarines: 14 in the current fleet, with the Columbia-class program being the highest priority.
• Attack Submarines: 55 in the current fleet, with expected growth but constrained by production capacity.
• Large Surface Combatants: 89 in the current fleet, with future plans for reductions.
• Small Surface Combatants: 31 in the current fleet, with expected increases.
• Amphibious Ships: 22 large amphibious ships in the current fleet, with potential reductions in favor of smaller, more flexible vessels.

Challenges and Uncertainties

• The Navy faces challenges in balancing fleet size, modernization, and readiness.
• The development of unmanned systems is still in its early stages, with no clear production plans.
• The future fleet architecture is still being refined, with the Biden administration's plan likely to be smaller and more focused than previous proposals.

Conclusion

The U.S. Navy in FY 2022 is navigating a complex landscape of strategic and budgetary constraints. While there is bipartisan support for a larger fleet, the current budget and shipbuilding rate limit growth. Future fleet architectures are still under development, with a focus on unmanned systems and distributed operations, but these plans may not be fully achievable due to high costs and production limitations. The Navy continues to balance its operational needs with the need to modernize and sustain its global presence.