国际战略研究中心-2022财年美国军队：陆军（英）-17页_873kb

Summary of U.S. Military Forces in FY 2022

Core Content

The U.S. Army's force structure in FY 2022 remained largely stable despite a $3.6 billion budget decline. This decision reflects a strategic effort to maintain its budget share and readiness, even as it faces pressure from other branches to reallocate funds toward capabilities against China.

Key Takeaways

• Strategic Focus on China: Many strategists, including the new administration, advocate for reducing Army end strength to fund Navy and Air Force capabilities for use against China. The Army argues that it remains essential for global operations, including in the Indo-Pacific.
• Budget Risk: The Army took a risk in FY 2022 by maintaining its structure despite budget cuts. This is seen as a strategic move to influence future budget allocations.
• End Strength Targets: The Army aimed to maintain approximately 485,000 in the Regular Army, 336,000 in the National Guard, and 189,500 in the Army Reserve for FY 2022.
• Modernization and Readiness Cuts: To offset budget reductions, the Army cut modernization and readiness programs. The "night court" process identified $7.3 billion in savings between FY 2020 and FY 2022, but only $70 million were available in FY 2022.
• Active-Reserve Mix: The Army maintains a stable mix of 48% active and 52% National Guard/Army Reserve forces, a balance that has persisted since FY 2015.
• Future Force Size: The Army aims for 540,000 to 550,000 active soldiers to meet all peacetime and wartime commitments. The National Guard and Army Reserve aim to maintain current levels instead of increasing.

Force Structure in FY 2022

• Regular Army: Maintains 31 brigade combat teams (BCTs) and 11 combat aviation brigades (CABs).
• National Guard: Keeps 27 BCTs, 2 CABs, and 6 expeditionary CABs, totaling 8 aviation brigades.
• Army Reserve: Retains two theater aviation brigades (TABS) and no major changes in support units.
• Security Force Assistance Brigades (SFABs): Five in the Regular Army and one in the National Guard, tasked with training and advising allies, potentially serving as a basis for future BCT expansion.
• BCT Balance: Light BCTs (infantry) remain at 33, while heavy BCTs increased to 16 in FY 2022. The National Guard has a higher proportion of light BCTs (74%) compared to the Regular Army (65%).

The Army Budget

• Budget Decline: The Army's FY 2022 budget decreased by $3.6 billion in current dollars and $5.5 billion in constant dollars.
• Funding Cuts:
  • Procurement: Reduced by $2.8 billion, affecting ongoing programs.
  • RDT&E: Cut by $1.3 billion, slowing modernization efforts.
  • Operations and Maintenance (O&M): Reduced, but some areas like civilian personnel and healthcare saw increases.
• Readiness Model: The Army is shifting to a model that prioritizes training at the company level and below, reducing training for higher-level units.
• Training Reductions: Full-spectrum training miles for active units dropped by 40%, and monthly flying hours per crew fell by 14%. National Guard rotations at combat training centers also declined.

Future Size and Shape of the Army

• Strategic Dynamics: Three forces influence the Army's future size: focus on China, operational demands, and recruiting challenges.
• Deployment Requirements: The Army deployed 171,000 soldiers to 140 countries in FY 2022, highlighting ongoing global commitments.
• Recruiting Challenges: Declining youth enlistment and demographic challenges threaten future force growth.
• Equilibrium: The Army has reached a strategic equilibrium of 48% Regular and 52% National Guard/Army Reserve, a level that may be tested by future budget constraints.

Future Structure: Modernization, New Capabilities, and New Units

• Modernization Status: The Army is in a "good news, bad news" situation. It continues upgrading existing systems, but lacks a new generation of capabilities for great power conflict.
• Existing Upgrades: Programs like M1A2 SEP V2 tanks, M2A4 Bradleys, and Stryker vehicles are being upgraded, though at reduced procurement rates.
• New Systems: Three new systems—JLTV, AMPV, and MPF—are in production, though funding for some is still limited.
• Long-Range Fires: The Army increased funding for long-range munitions like the Guided MLRS Rocket and Precision Strike Missile, indicating readiness for great power conflict.
• Short-Range Missiles: Funding for short-range systems like Hellfire missiles was reduced significantly.

Tensions and Strategic Considerations

• Component Tensions: Historically, tensions between active and reserve components have been high, especially during drawdowns. The 2016 National Commission on the Future of the Army helped ease these tensions.
• Strategic Stability: The current balance of 48% active and 52% reserve is seen as strategically stable, though future budget constraints or changes in strategy could disrupt this balance.
• Unmanned Systems: Despite a strategic emphasis on unmanned capabilities, the Army reduced funding for such systems in FY 2022.

Conclusion

The U.S. Army's FY 2022 force structure and budget reflect a strategic balancing act between maintaining global capabilities, preparing for great power conflict, and managing financial constraints. While the Army has preserved its structure, it faces long-term risks due to budget limitations and shifting strategic priorities. The future will depend on how well it can navigate these challenges and secure necessary funding for modernization and readiness.