2022-09-01-Allianz-2022年全球贸易调查_28页_4mb

Allianz Trade Global Survey 2022 Summary

Key Trends

1. Economic Uncertainty:

   • Global trade faces challenges from the war in Ukraine, higher energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions.
   • Companies are increasingly concerned about non-payment risks and longer payment terms, exacerbated by inflation and currency fluctuations.
   • Exporters in chemicals, energy, and machinery sectors are most affected by rising costs and demand slowdowns.

2. Adaptation Strategies:

   • Businesses are diversifying export markets (especially targeting China and the US) and seeking new suppliers to mitigate risks.
   • Digitalization is accelerating, aiding logistics, payment processes, and supply chain resilience.
   • Companies are investing in new capacities, particularly in sectors like household equipment, oil & gas, and retail.

3. Policy and Government Support:

   • State-guaranteed loans and subsidies are still seen as critical tools, though there is skepticism about returning to the extensive support levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.
   • Calls for new free trade agreements and labor retraining policies are growing, especially in Europe.

4. Digitalization and ESG:

   • Digital trade technologies are playing a vital role in simplifying transactions and improving efficiency.
   • ESG compliance is being addressed primarily through supplier selection and process adjustments, but carbon taxes have not yet significantly altered trade flows.

5. Globalization and Trade Relations:

   • Globalization is reconfiguring, with a focus on resilience and sustainability in trade agreements like CETA.
   • Supply chain normalization is expected to take until 2024, with regionalization and continentalization reshaping trade flows.

Market Outlook

• Trade growth in 2022 is forecasted at 4% (by volume), a decline from pre-war expectations, due to high energy prices, sanctions, and logistics bottlenecks.
• China and the US remain dominant in global exports, but geopolitical risks may lead to a shift away from hyper-globalized production models.
• Opportunities lie in sustainable trade technologies, microcredentialing, and intra-regional supply chains.

Forward-Looking Recommendations

• Companies should prioritize risk mitigation through payment security and supply chain diversification.
• Governments should enhance funding mechanisms for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and promote sustainable trade practices.
• Enterprises should invest in digital tools and ESG initiatives to align with global trade trends.